Should be interesting to see how it compares to the actual outcome. I’m a wee bit surprised to see 54% chance of us winning, based on reading that they haven’t lost a home euro game in 5 years but then, a lot of factors coukd be behind that and also behind victories against stronger teams.
A team going there with a 3,4 or 5 goal lead are probably coasting thru the game and not playing a full strength team. So while you can run the numbers, there’s a lot of hidden factors.
Hope your predictor is correct and we can get thru to the next round. Hopefully you’ll keep us updated on your progress throughout the season.