Exactly.
How the game would have panned out without Hughes in the team would be mearly speculation as the dictionary says...
Fact (Stephen Hughes goal and it's effect on the final result)
Definition: 1. Something known to be true: something that can be shown to be true, to exist, or to have happened
Speculation (What might have happened if Hughes hadn't been playing)
Definition:1. Opinion based on incomplete information: a conclusion, theory, or opinion based on incomplete facts or information
Mon the Well!