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Relegation


milo
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One thing that I'm fairly certain of (I think it was mentioned in the lads podcast) is that if we're not relegated this year, we'll most likely be looking at it within the next few seasons, especially if we're cutting our cloth accordingly this summer.

 

I think we bear all the hallmarks of a Championship level club unfortunately, and it's really only a matter of time before we go down.

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One thing that I'm fairly certain of (I think it was mentioned in the lads podcast) is that if we're not relegated this year, we'll most likely be looking at it within the next few seasons, especially if we're cutting our cloth accordingly this summer.

 

I think we bear all the hallmarks of a Championship level club unfortunately, and it's really only a matter of time before we go down.

Thing is, cutting your cloth doesn't necessarily mean relegation. Are Partick Thistle, Hamilton, St Johnstone or Kilmarnock spending significantly more than us? No, probably not. But Hamilton and St Johnstone in particular are making every penny count. Can we say the same about Motherwell? Nielsen, Lawson, Ainsworth, Ojaama, McManus. All probably among higher earners at the club who haven't contributed accordingly.

 

This summer offers an opportunity to address that. It's about spending smart, not spending big. Finding players who will offer a good return for what we're paying them, either on the park or in a fee when they're sold on. People are always keen to point out contracts offered to the likes of McHugh, Cummins and Angol as examples of the money the club has wasted. For me, these deals are at the bottom of the list in terms of money wasted.

 

We can only hope with a new manager and new faces at boardroom level, we see a new approach. Expenditure on playing staff has to be value for money. At points this season we've had Nielsen, Lawson and Ainsworth all on the bench. That's a lot of money going to waste when Stewart, Leitch and Thomas are available to offer backup.

 

I refuse to accept that a smaller budget means less quality. It just means you have to scout better, spend smarter and be more imaginative than the other teams.

 

That's the challenge this close season, irrespective of whether we stay up or not. Let's hope the new owner and manager are up to it...

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We will need to get a few more points because if either St. MIrren or RC get a few we are done on goal difference. We've got the worst GD in the entire Scottish system and -61 to Celtic: that's just catastrophic. We haven't been able to score goals and we've not been able to stop them either, so the situation is desperate. Stop splitting hairs about whether we're the worst team or not, the point is that id either of the other two catch up on points we are done because of the GD. And either Hearts or Rangers will eat us alive. It's now up to the manager to get a team together that deserves to be in the Premiership.

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I'm feeling a little bit more confident after the weekend, but I still think we'll struggle to get 10th without a few new faces this week.

 

But do people think that the board are now starting to realise the amount of ticket money we could earn with Rangers and Hearts back in the league? And I no doubt predict that the SPFL will suddenly interest some sponsors with Rangers back in the top flight. Not getting relegated this year could be big for us financially, who knows what could happen if we do get relegated though

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One thing that I'm fairly certain of (I think it was mentioned in the lads podcast) is that if we're not relegated this year, we'll most likely be looking at it within the next few seasons, especially if we're cutting our cloth accordingly this summer.

 

I think we bear all the hallmarks of a Championship level club unfortunately, and it's really only a matter of time before we go down.

 

 

Why?

 

In terms of size of the club we are probably a Top Six team. Accies, Inverness, Ross County, Partick Thistle, St. Mirren, St.Johnstone all smaller sized clubs than us. Kilmarnock are roughly the same.

 

I said it before but if all these teams are cutting their cloth then we should be aiming at a Top 6 place as a matter of course.

 

If Rangers and Hibs re-establish themselves that puts us a few places further down again but we have as much in the way of resources as any other provincial professional club in the country.

 

I've never seen Motherwell relegated in 30 years of going to Fir Park and although we escaped on technicalities a couple of times one of them was down to, hopefully, a one off event in administration and the other was in a 10 league team at a time when the 7 city clubs dominated Scottish football, something that isn't likely to happen again to quite the same degree.

 

We are in big, big trouble this season and I think some people are underestimating how big that trouble is but if we escape relegation this term then I don't see why we should view ourselves as some sort of doomed club when half the teams get smaller attendances and have less money coming in.

 

Everything being even Motherwell should be a mid league team in the SPFL and I don't see why if we are properly run on and off the field why that should change dramatically.

 

I don't see why we "bare the hallmarks of a Championship level club" or why "we'll most likely be looking at it within the next few season".

 

We've been shocking this season but our last poor season saw McGhee come in and turn the team around and bring us a long period of high finishes. That's what we should be aiming for instead of writing the club off as another Morton.

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Thing is, cutting your cloth doesn't necessarily mean relegation. Are Partick Thistle, Hamilton, St Johnstone or Kilmarnock spending significantly more than us? No, probably not. But Hamilton and St Johnstone in particular are making every penny count.......

 

This summer offers an opportunity to address that. It's about spending smart, not spending big. Finding players who will offer a good return for what we're paying them, either on the park or in a fee when they're sold on......We can only hope with a new manager and new faces at boardroom level, we see a new approach. Expenditure on playing staff has to be value for money......

I refuse to accept that a smaller budget means less quality. It just means you have to scout better, spend smarter and be more imaginative than the other teams.....That's the challenge this close season, irrespective of whether we stay up or not. Let's hope the new owner and manager are up to it...

 

A well thought post which is spot on. We may need to change the way we play to reflect the St Johnstone or Inverness style or perhaps follow in Accies footsteps. Concentrate on hard working, strong and reliable types or try to source excellent young prospects and bring them on. Perhaps a combination of both approaches.

 

 

How about a 7/8 hard working, fit, strong, reliable journeymen with 3/4 talented youngsters?

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Our problem is all these clubs HAVE cut their cloth and are pretty much settled.

 

This summer we have 14 or 15 contracts up but the highest earners are still under contract so cutting cloth means either bringing in only 8/9 players or bringing in even cheaper players! Plus this season will have seen us budget for at least top 6! In reality we will finish 10th at the highest,were papped out of both cups first round and our crowds are dwindling,thats what,minimum £500k shortfall. Plus we have a shitehole stadium draining money out of us.

 

This summer wont see cloth cutting or rebudgeting,it will see a savage cull so I fully understand why people are saying relegation is a given in the near future. In my opinion,and Ive said it since last summer,we finish 10th and we will call in the administrators at the end of may

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If we survive the drop this year, think we have a few tough years ahead of us. While all the clubs you could deem smaller than us have been heavily investing in youth and bringing through players, we have been riding high with one of our most successful periods in our history.

 

Now the bubble is burst, and we are two or three years at least behind the smaller SPL clubs in terms of youth players coming through and making an impact.

 

Folk on here have pointed the finger at the board, at McCall, at Black, at the players and the youth development team, etc for the very evident short term vision that has now firmly come back to bite us on the arse. Whoever is to blame, its now all about moving in the right direction to get the club into a sustainable model of youth development to compare to our rivals.

 

And over the next 4-5years I will settle for 10th every year and possible a decent run in one of the cups if we come out the other end in a much better position.

 

Relegation would be a massive blow to the club. In terms of the financial implications it would be a disaster, and we could potentially stagnate like Dunfermline have.

 

And that's the catch 22 - we want to get the young guys coming through and developing them, while at the same time doing all we can to ensure we don't get relegated, so will need proper experience heads round about them.

 

 

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Our problem is all these clubs HAVE cut their cloth and are pretty much settled.

 

This summer we have 14 or 15 contracts up but the highest earners are still under contract so cutting cloth means either bringing in only 8/9 players or bringing in even cheaper players! Plus this season will have seen us budget for at least top 6! In reality we will finish 10th at the highest,were papped out of both cups first round and our crowds are dwindling,thats what,minimum £500k shortfall. Plus we have a shitehole stadium draining money out of us.

 

This summer wont see cloth cutting or rebudgeting,it will see a savage cull so I fully understand why people are saying relegation is a given in the near future. In my opinion,and Ive said it since last summer,we finish 10th and we will call in the administrators at the end of may

:blink: A contradiction is it not? That and you don't seem to have grasped the term 'administration'?

 

Why would we call in the administrators? Have we unknown debts we don't know of that cannot be paid? Information available has all creditors paid up with no opportunity in some years to incur bank debt. Calling in administrators for that would be a new one in the business world.

 

Cloth cutting? Rebudgeting? Dress it up how we like - current board have held their hands up & we'll now be in a period of change, an evolution if you like. It's required. Whilst not one for normally mentioning potential earnings of club staff, it's unsustainable to be paying more on average to players who rarely figure in our first team squad than competitors featuring regularly in performing top six teams. As mentioned by others on another thread, we are going to have to be creative in scouting & sourcing talent, improved coaching & a willingness to blood our future earlier.

 

Not going to argue over the stadium drain.

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Our problem is all these clubs HAVE cut their cloth and are pretty much settled.

 

This summer we have 14 or 15 contracts up but the highest earners are still under contract so cutting cloth means either bringing in only 8/9 players or bringing in even cheaper players! Plus this season will have seen us budget for at least top 6! In reality we will finish 10th at the highest,were papped out of both cups first round and our crowds are dwindling,thats what,minimum £500k shortfall. Plus we have a shitehole stadium draining money out of us.

 

This summer wont see cloth cutting or rebudgeting,it will see a savage cull so I fully understand why people are saying relegation is a given in the near future. In my opinion,and Ive said it since last summer,we finish 10th and we will call in the administrators at the end of may

I don't know enough about the club's finances to say whether administration is likely or not.

 

What I would say is that 14 or 15 players out of contract isn't something I see as a problem but an opportunity. Some of those out of contract are likely to be among the higher earners. I'm thinking of Nielsen, Lawson, Ainsworth, Vigurs.

 

Cheaper players doesn't necessarily mean worse players. General consensus is that Twardzik is a slightly better keeper than Nielsen. Who is earning more? Who has contributed more this season, Carswell or Lawson? Law or Ramsden at right back isn't a massive difference except in how much they earn. A few on here would rather start Erwin than Sutton. Who earns more?

 

As fans we get overly concerned about the pedigree of new signings. Who have they played for before? Club going for the cheap option? Have we even heard of this guy? Can we not sign an available former player? Perhaps the club have been guilty of the same thinking recently? Personally I'd never heard of a few of Inverness', Dundee's or Partick's signings but they seem to be doing better than our "name" players. Lazy approach to scouting? Maybe and maybe this summer offers a chance to address this and change our thinking...

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No lower than 10th would be a great season for me, stay in the premiership and let IB build for next season.

 

You've hit the nail on the head.

 

I think St Mirren have been a wee bit rattled by our transfer activity in more ways than one. Gary Teale has been panicked into searching for additional out of contract players. However you'd imagine the best acquisitions have already been snapped up.

 

thumbup.gif

From what I can gather we snatched a couple from under their noses.

 

 

 

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  • 2 weeks later...

The way I look at it is we have 2 more throws of the dice to get clear of this. 1) new assistant gets a reaction 2) Pearson and hammell return

 

The second would be huge as pearo is what we are crying out for, and hammell may be the only player I would label as dependable.

 

If these done happen and we dont get 6 points out of the next 9, we're toast.

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Laing had a nightmare debut but we need him to be better than anything else we've had this season and shore up the defence.

 

By all accounts Grant did well and he scored a good free kick. Perhaps if him and another new arrival can kick on we can do a bit better, but I think we'll be doing well if half of them are an improvement on what we already had.

 

We definitely need Pearson and Hammell back.

 

I also think Dom Thomas could be a crucial player for us in the run in. I'd like to think that by watching matches at Fir park since 1982 I can spot a bit of quality amid all the mediocrity and dross and in my opinion Dom Thomas has that.

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We could speculate on what will happen in the next three months, but what are the opinions on what will happen if we do go down?

 

I think we are better equipped for it than we were in October, with the infrastructure changes we have seen, and we have the benefit of a lot of big contracts coming off the books.

 

However, I don't think we will come straight back up since we will be competing with saints or county, and two out of rangers, hibs, and qos, and with two bigger clubs set to come up next year, missing out on the gate revenue could set us back a few years too.

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