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Run In To Split


Goggles & Flippers
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Thinking of the goal difference, when was the last time we conceded a goal without having a hand in it ourselves. ICT?

Maybe it was the next game against Killie, anyway we have got better at keeping the opposition out although we are still prone to self destruction.

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I reckon County and Thistle are safe now. Assuming County win on Monday, both need 3 more wins to equal or better our max possible points tally. They are the form teams in the bottom 6 and look more than capable of doing that.

 

Our best way of avoiding the play-off is now catching Kilmarnock (who still have Aberdeen and Celtic to play) or Accies. That mad scenario with Accies is now looking more and more like the only glimmer of hope here.... and the way they are playing it's not outwith the realm of possibility.

 

Fuuuuuck

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Today's performance and result may very well come back to haunt us. We are now as good as six points behind County and they will have a chance to increase the goal difference on Monday night to make it, in reality, a seven point margin. We will have five games to turn t hat around which should really be considered as four seeing as we both still have to play St Mirren again. The pressure is all on us now and we know how that has worked out this season. Play off here we come.

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Yesterday was dismal, however looking at the positives, it was really only our first real poor performance in the past 6 or 7 games. If we can find the form of recent games again there is no reason why we can't win 3 or 4 of our remaining fixtures. The question is will that be enough?

 

Absolutely noone on here could have predicted that County would have taken 22 points out of 24 in the past 8 games. Even if they had taken 15 points, we would be 4 clear of them and probably with a better goal difference. I suppose we are all hoping that St Mirren do us a turn on Monday night (puts it back in our own hands) failing that I think the only way we can realistically avoid the play off is for Killie, Partick or County to go on a real bad run.

 

Time for togetherness with the fans, players and management... we're in this together.

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Partick Thistle (I predicted 4/5 points and they have equalled us on 10, so the points distance when this post started has remained the same. Over those fixtures they recorded a better result at 2nd placed Aberdeen and also played the Champions elect)

Ross County (A) 0

St Johnstone (H) 3

Inverness CT (H) 3

Aberdeen (A) 1

Celtic (A) 0

Motherwell (H) 3

 

Ross County (I said 8 and they have 13 and not many would be surprised if they got 16. Their only blip in the last 7 games is a draw away to Accies .... go figure. In that game they were 2-0 down and ground out a result .... however you could argue the same about us at Rugby Park last week)

Partick Thistle (H) 3

Hamilton (A) 1

Kilmarnock (H) 3

Dundee Utd (A) 3

St Johnstone (H) 3

St Mirren (A)

 

St Mirren (I hoped for 4 max, 3 is the best they and most Motherwell fans can hope for)

Kilmarnock (A) 0

St Johnstone (A) 0

Celtic (H) 0

Motherwell (A) 0

Ross County (H)

 

Motherwell (I expected 10 points, and we got it, pretty much how I expected us to accrue the points except we drew at home to Killie and won away, I had it the other way round)

Kilmarnock (H) 1

Aberdeen (A) 0

Hamilton (H) 3

Kilmarnock (A) 3

St Mirren (H) 3

Partick Thistle (A) 0

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I think calling individual predictions is difficult, points will be dropped by all teams and there will be plenty of more twists and turns. What I think is telling is when we look at how many points each team above us needs for safety.

 

Our max points tally will be 46. For it to come down to goal difference this what teams need (assuming my math is correct)-

 

Accies need 3 from possible 15.

Killie need 8 from 21.

County need 12 from 18.

Thistle need 8 from 15.

 

County are possibly the only team we can finish level with and be above on goal difference. Also points dropped by ourselves can be taken off the tally those teams need.

 

I go to even the toughest of games full of optimism, but to me that's very grim reading.

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I think what is telling is the following facts:

 

St. Mirren have very little about them and will certainly finish bottom.

 

Both Motherwell and Partick Thistle have accrued the same number of points in the past 6 games. They've played tougher teams and our gap remains the same however with less opportunities to close it

 

Ross County have managed 13 with a good chance of 16. I think their run will naturally come to an end, just hope it's not in August or September.

 

The potential best hope for us is the two teams not covered. I didn't include them 6 weeks ago as I thought things would pan out between the bottom 4 and they were essentially safe. So I'll look at their last 6 games:

 

Accies (2 points) currently 43, GD, -6

Celtic 0
St Mirren 0
Ross County 1
Motherwell 0
St Johnstone 1
Dundee Utd 0

 

Killie (2 points) currently 38, GD -8

St Johnstone 1
Motherwell 1
St Mirren 0
Ross County 0
Motherwell 0
Aberdeen 0
Accies have had a tougher run in but even Dundee Utd who have the worst form currently got a result. Killie have also stalled but from watching them I think they have more about them than Accies. What we have in our favour is that I feel both teams could feasibly only take points off of St Mirren, outside that it's a big ask based on current form.
When we look at our final fixtures it will hopefully be:
Killie (h) 3 (very tough but we have a score to settle over playing 45 minutes and not breaking through)
Accies (a) 3 (even on the plastic pitch I have little fear)
Partick (h) 1 (a lot of ex Motherwell players have a lot to prove, as do a lot of current ones after yesterday)
St. Mirren (a) 3 (chronic)
Ross County (h) 1 (We'll be pumped up and when you think back to the 3-2 in Dingwall they scored two wonder goals, there wasn't that much between the teams)
Issue is I can't see anyone dropping points to St Mirren which puts Accies safe and us level on points with Killie. Issue is we have to get +8 goals and they have to end the 5 games -8 (or another combination equalling 16).
Lot of if's and but's but our best chance still rests with overhauling Ross County. To suggest we win our home fixture is a given so we need to get a win one week they lose. Not beyond the realms of reality to match them every game bar one and tuck them away.
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Thought the chat was we will be the ones who end up with 3 away games?

 

We shouldn't do. The SPFL would be leaving themselves open to accusations if they don't keep teams near the bottom playing 19 home and away. Looking back it tends to be teams whose season is effectively over who get shafted. The only major exception to that was last year when Aberdeen only had 18 home games, but had previously had three seasons with 20 home games. I think Killie will end up short on home games this time.

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