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January Transfer Window


Kmcalpin
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Re: Mackin

 

If he isn't deemed to able to make the breakthrough. He has the ability and physique but that, by itself isn't enough. According to Crags he needs to do more/push himself harder to make the breakthrough. He's been on the verge of making a few subs appearances but hasn't quite done it yet. Maybe the summer will be decision time? Hopefully he will step up.

That's what I thought when I posted and you've conveyed my thoughts on the player. I just hope he doesn't turn out to he the next Bob McHugh for a variety of reasons, not least stifling his progress.

 

Anyway, I've heard that Palace are 'keeping tabs' on Moult, bit are far from the only club. Cardiff are likely to make an offer and have had scouts at many Scottish games recently, apparently. They've got Moult, McGinn and Hayes on a shortlist.

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I see we're all getting carried away about what Moults true worth in the transfer market is, much like we did with Marvin Johnson. I seem to remember Johnson wasn't to leave unless he eclipsed O'Donnells £1.75m transfer fee from back in the day. He ended up going for roughly what I'd have thought...and again, if we get a serious offer for Moult in the region of £500k-750k (with add-ons), I believe we should and will take it.

 

Like it or not, Scottish Fitba' is seen as a backwater (and it is), we're filling our team up with guys from Grimsby, Wrexham, Chester et al, for either fuck all, or next to fuck all and when they come good we're expecting English clubs just to hand over a cheque for a £1million+, just because they have it to splash about?

 

I've read folk saying, 'we'll never replace his quality offering the money we do', or 'we'll get relegated without him'...fucking hell, a) had anyone ever seen this boy play before we plucked him from obscurity? b) we've lost far better players than Louis and still survived.

 

Who's to say, that we don't have our next target already lined up, ok, its not an ideal time to be trying to get players in, but it is the optimum time to be selling a guy who has 18months left on his contract. Who's to say, that Bowman or Mackin can't come in and do enough to help us stave off relegation? No one is irreplaceable and i didn't spot Louis's talents in his 1st few matches for us.

 

The facts of the matter are, we've told all and sundry what our reason for being is... we'll bring young players through our own system and we'll take a punt on guys lower down the English leagues, giving both a platform to perform at our level and allow them to move on when a reasonable offer comes in which will allow them to make a better salary elsewhere. And, I'd imagine Moult will be able to make a helluva lot more money almost anywhere in the top3 leagues in England than he does up here.

 

We owe people money, and our Club should be looking to pay that money back as quickly as is physically possible to then allow us to kick on without that burden hanging over us. Playing hardball in our situation is walking on dodgy ground as far as I'm concerned...we've lost players in the past for scraps, or for fuck all because we either never got any offers (ie Randolph), or because we failed to capitalise at the optimum time (Jamie Murphy and Mark Reynolds spring to mind).

 

Moult has turned out to be a great signing, and selling him for 10times what we bought him for in the space of 18months is a great piece of business and the Club and the scouting network (and Ian Baraclough) should be applauded for that.

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I know what you are saying but feel a 20 goal a season striker is worth at least 750K and wound be very disappointed if was sold for any less . IMO he's championship level currently but nowhere near premier league level so Palace would be a step too far but plenty of teams in championship looking for a back up striker. I know my English team Leeds certainly need 1 as Wood only main striker but thinks they might be put off the way Erwin turned out lol .

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I see we're all getting carried away about what Moults true worth in the transfer market is, much like we did with Marvin Johnson. I seem to remember Johnson wasn't to leave unless he eclipsed O'Donnells £1.75m transfer fee from back in the day. He ended up going for roughly what I'd have thought...and again, if we get a serious offer for Moult in the region of £500k-750k (with add-ons), I believe we should and will take it.

 

Like it or not, Scottish Fitba' is seen as a backwater (and it is), we're filling our team up with guys from Grimsby, Wrexham, Chester et al,

I agree with much of what you say but what really irks me is that if he was playing for the 3 clubs you mention he'd automatically be worth twice as much.

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Louis Moult has been great for us. Not only his goals but his workrate has helped make him a fans favourite in a short time here. He has also managed to appear (whether it's true or not) happy to play for us (not always the case with players from down South). If he leaves in January, he'll go with nothing but good wishes from me.

 

How much is he worth? He's worth whatever teams are willing to pay for him. He's a goalscorer and they are always in demand but he could (should?) have had a hattrick on Saturday and teams will see the chances he misses as well as the goals he scores. Flipside to that is that old adage that he keeps getting in the right positions which is a good knack for any striker. Is he as good as some players that have changed hands for seven figures down South? I think so but we have to accept that any player playing in Scotland is marked as 'unproven' to those in England and the price drops accordingly. I'd like £750k but think £500k is probably realistic.

 

On whether we have a replacement lined up, you'd like to think that we as a club are preparing for the eventuality of Moult or Cadden leaving but way we looked totally unprepared for the loss of Marvin Johnson doesn't fill me with confidence...

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Would he really? I'm not so sure, he spent a fair amount of time plying his trade down south, scoring goals and then joins us for (a quoted) £50k?

 

Quite. Omar Bogle is Grimsby's top scorer and he's being linked with Championship clubs with offers being quoted at £350k.

 

http://footballleagueworld.co.uk/rotherham-united-allegedly-launch-six-figure-bid-for-prolific-forward/

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Are Talksport a reliable source for the Moult rumour? They suggest we paid £125k for him which is nonsense.

 

I heard £30k quoted as what we paid, it's probably closer to that.

 

Since Faddy went to Everton, I can only really think of Goodwillie, Robertson and strangely Russell Anderson who have gone straight from non Old Firm sides to Premier League clubs. That's obviously not including the likes of Fyvie, Kingsley and Fulton who have went down to development squads, so it's not exactly common place.

 

For a player to go to the Premier League straight from us would need to be an exceptional case. Whilst I think Moult has been a terrific signing and his goals and work rate have put him up there with my favourite players I've seen with us, being realistic I admit he's not that exceptional case. Whilst scoring in the cup against East Fife, Cove Rangers, Morton and Annan won't go against him, the scouts would be looking primarily at how he does in the league against like for like sides. Last season he scored 15 in 38 league appearances, two doubles meaning he scored in 13 of the 38 games, roughly a third of the games. I don't think that's enough to make the step up. Especially when Palace have Christian Benteke, Frazier Campbell, Loic Remy and Connor Wickham as their strikers, he's not going there to compete.

 

He seems to score his goals in streak. Which there's no harm in, I think in my time supporting Motherwell you could only really say that Michael Higdon in 12/13 and John Sutton in 13/14 have consistently scored goals over the course of the season. The majority of strikers we have will go through droughts and dry spells, which is fine. Moult had four extended periods without a goal last season and has had two already this season, which although he is a fantastic player for us and I am absolutely delighted with his contribution since he signed for us, I reckon that probably stops him being that exceptional case that goes to the EPL.

 

I actually didn't think we would have sold him this window, who knows with all these rumours, but for me he would go to be a top striker at a League One club (where Kane Hemmings went after his wonder season at Dundee last year) or a striker going to a Championship club going trying to provide competition and eventually displace the strikers already there.

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I see the Skippy to Australia rumours have surfaced again.

 

http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/sport/football/a-league/former-socceroos-star-scott-mcdonald-set-for-aleague-homecoming/news-story/2fdad72ddd5a39c245ec99ad1b99a21e

 

I fully expect him to be away by the summer and would rather he was back in Australia than playing against us. Hopefully, he is content enough to see out his contract.

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Going to be a massive rebuilding job in the summer.

Most likely Moult, McDonald & Ainsworth could be away. that's a lot of goals to be replaced.

Still reckon Bowman may do a job. When he first came in he was playing in a front three with Moult and McDonald in a system that suited none of them. I think up top with a McDonald type playing off him, we'd see the best of him. Mackin would hopefully be ready to step into Bowman's current role as first reserve striker. I'm also hoping Ross MacLean can nail down the right wing spot vacated by Ainsworth.

 

 

I don't think there's anyone in the U20s who can fill the McDonald role so that's one signing we'd need to make.

 

Having said that, the fact that guys like Campbell, McMillan and MacLean have stepped up and not looked out of place should mean we're at least willing to look at some of the players like Fry and Hastie to step up and fill the gaps if players leave...

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At the end of the day, there is no guarantee we would get relegated if Moult leaves however it leaves us in a pretty horrendous position. Moult is one of the top scorers in the league with 9 goals, take these goals away and we would be really struggling. Take last week for example, granted he didn't have a great game but he was the guy that dug us out a hole and rescued a point for us. Moult has done this for us on a variety of occasions.

I agree with the comments regarding Crystal Palace however don't forget he is only 24 and is still developing, perhaps they are looking at this as a longer term signing. In saying that, I would say the most likely scenario is a championship team comes in for him rather than Palace. The championship is a very scrappy league and isn't awash with any great quality. The kind of games played would probably play to Louis' strengths as a talented goalscorer. Regardless of this fact the transfer figure isn't going to be anything over 500k - 750k in a January window. England's superiority complex dictates this is the case unless he hits extraordinary form.

 

I understand that our club isn't in the best financial position but if we sell Moult for 500k in January it increases our chances of relegation significantly. Denying that is foolish. We know with the club's current transfer policy if we let him go we will end up bringing in a replacement from the lower leagues in England for 50k-75k and it could be a hit or a miss.

His contract is signed until June 2018, my feeling is we should reject any bids for him in January unless they are over 1m. This way we can increase our chances of finishing the league in a decent position and if he hits any sort of form will still be worth a decent amount in the summer. I think if we let Moult go for around 500k in this window we would be very foolish.

It's about time our club starts to take a tougher approach.

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We can start taking a tougher approach when we are on a sound financial footing...just my opinion though

 

Aye I totally understand this point of view, we are by no means hugely stable just now.

My point against this however is that if we get shot of Moult, we COULD get relegated. Not trying to be doom and gloom but it is an increased possibility without him in our team. We aren't safe yet.

And if we do get relegated the financial impact is going to be far more than 500k. We still have a year on his deal, why not keep him until the summer and reapproach things in the summer. I would be hugely surprised if there is no interest in the summer months.

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Its all hypothetical at this stage...the Clubs involved, the fee involved, will we be relegated with him, will we be relegated without him, will he get injured between now and the Summer, will he throw his dummy out the pram if we don't let him move, will we get a similar bid in the Summer???????

 

For me, and I'd probably liken it to cashing out early at the bookies...I'm more inclined to take the money and use it again.

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^^Exactly this...if our new model is going to have any hope of working, we need to cash in where we can and be able to introduce our reserve players or new signings and have faith in them

 

The new model, as mentioned during the Well Society Q&A means that we don't have to sell any more players this season. We have, in effect, a line of credit with Les and JB, with a repayment schedule that is very favourable. We also have a guaranteed bump in income next season if we stay in the top league. So staying in the top league has to be a priority.

 

There's no point in paying off loans unnecessarily early if it means we get relegated. I think the balance we have right now is working pretty well. Brought in some money for Johnson, Pearson and Hall while blooding a number of youngsters. We have also done some good business by extending the contracts of Cadden and some of the youth prospects. If we repeat that over the next 2 or 3 years we should be in sound financial shape.

 

Of course, if we get an big offer for a player we need to consider it, but we are already showing that we are in a stronger position to negotiate and we should continue down that path. We had figure in mind for Marvin and rather than rolling over (like prior years) we held out until we got that number. If Moult wants to (quite reasonably) move on, we should be able to get the same, or more, in June than we will in January.

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Where is this we would only keep 40% of a transfer fee for Moult coming from? Have I been wooshed?

it's part of the terms of the negotiated payment package agreed between the club, boyle, hutchison and (i think) the well society. basically for the next 3 years their repayment is coming from transfer income rather than a fixed payment plan. i'm sure someone who was at the AGM can explain better than i but that's the gist.

 

the detail (though not the % amount) was listed in the statement when the fan ownership deal went through.

 

Edit: here you go "An important element in the agreement is that loan repayments for the first three years will be made from a percentage of player transfer income only.

 

This means that the club will not be burdened with loan repayments from regular income during this period, but will still benefit from player transfers by receiving a percentage of transfer fee income. After the initial three year period, outstanding loans will be repaid on a fixed payment schedule. All of these factors protect the financial security of the club."

http://www.thewellsociety.co.uk/2016/10/28/well-society-statement-a-new-era/

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the detail (though not the % amount) was listed in the statement when the fan ownership deal went through.

 

This means that the club will not be burdened with loan repayments from regular income during this period, but will still benefit from player transfers by receiving a percentage of transfer fee income. After the initial three year period, outstanding loans will be repaid on a fixed payment schedule. All of these factors protect the financial security of the club."

http://www.thewellsociety.co.uk/2016/10/28/well-society-statement-a-new-era/

Fair enough I'd read it as 40% was going to Wrexham or maybe an agent. My bad.

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