Run In To The Split - Projections

[Welldaft Mk1]

Now 2-2 thanks to the best dive I have seen in a while. Still Celtic have had many dubious penalties over the years...

 

Does not help us though

 

Bonus is that Boyce misses our game according to Sky

[Welldaft Mk1]

Bonus though that Boyce missing our game according to Sky

[underboyleheating]

Definite dive, however, it’s now 2-2.

[Heisenboab]

Is Schalk likely to get a retrospective ban for his dive?

[steelboy]

Is Schalk likely to get a retrospective ban for his dive?

 

The unwashed will have to be pacified so expect 5 matches.

[Welldaft Mk1]

So Schalk and Boyce missing for game v us. That would be good...

[underboyleheating]

 

The unwashed will have to be pacified so expect 5 matches.

I’ll back them on that one.

[Dezz]

I think Schalk (dirty diving aside) is a decent player so having him and Boyce out would be a big bonus for us.

 

A guy on P&B has run some %'s on the likelihood of teams achieving safety, getting into the playoffs or relegated following the weekends reaults. He's also done some numbers on how many points are likely to see you safe in at least 10th. Not sure exactly how he has calculated these but they make relatively interesting reading. According to him our likelihoods following the weekend are;

 

Safe - 75.40%

Playoff - 20.90%

12th - 3.70%

 

On a points basis the following points totals vs % chance of safety are;

 

35 - 33.50%

36 - 59.70%

37 - 81.10%

38 - 95.70%

39 - 99%

40 - 100%

 

Two wins in our final 5 games are likely to see us safe and anything over that pretty much seals the deal. Hopefully start with a win against Dundee to put some daylight between us and then in 11th.

[Ya Bezzer!]

I thought you meant me as I did this ages ago.

 

But someone else has come along.

[Dezz]

I thought you meant me as I did this ages ago.

 

But someone else has come along.

Apologies Ya Bezzer, I didn't see you'd done some numbers too. Not sure if yours are up to date but if so, can you say how they compare to the above?

[Brazilian]

Dundee play their last card, bumping Paul Hartley

 

http://dundeefc.co.uk/news/club-statement-paul-hartley/

 

Dundee Football Club have this afternoon relieved manager Paul Hartley of his duties.

Paul took charge of the club in February 2014. He took the club to the SPFL Championship title before clinching a top six finish in our first season back in the top flight.

Last season after missing out on the top six on the final day, the club went on to finish 8th in the top division.

The club currently sit 11th in the Premiership table and the Board of Directors feel a change is needed ahead of five vital matches between now and the end of the season.

Managing Director John Nelms is currently addressing the players and staff and the club will release a further update shortly.

John Nelms said, “I want to thank Paul for his time with the club. Unfortunately, the business we are in, sometimes change is necessary to achieve the goals we have set. I think somebody in the near future is going to get a good hard working manager.”

 

[Dezz]

Ah that's annoying because they were in absolute freefall. Fingers crossed they don't get the new manager bounce in 2 weeks time.

[middleeastdave]

The Paul Hartley sacking was not what we required as how many times does a new Manager (assuming new man appointed before 29thApril) and usually gets a good result first game. Even Robinson achieved that!!

[gdalli10]

Hopefully they appoint Ravanelli

[joewarkfanclub]

I actually think Paul Hartley is one of the better young managers in Scottish football. His record up until recent weeks is pretty impressive given who he has been managing. Sacking him with 5 games to go smacks of desperation. I dont see how any new manager can come in and effect significant change in such a short space of time. Hartley will get another gig pretty soon. Dundee are staring at the play offs.

[Welldaft Mk1]

Yes it means they will be a tougher prospect in a little under 2 weeks. But I saw signs on Saturday that we were well up for the fight. Played some decent attacking football and scored 4 goals.

 

I also read Skippy saying they would be extra focussed on avenging last defeat that ultimately cost McGhee his job.

 

One other positive is they will probably bring a larger crowd which is good for our bank balance.

[Lobey_Dosser]

I rate Hartley but by his own admission he had run out of ideas, similar to McCall's time here. He should be able to get a decent job soon enough.

 

From a Motherwell perspective we just need to focus on ourselves. If we can't secure safety with the run of fixtures we've been given, then we'll be deservedly relegated.

[Del_Superwell]

They can bring in anyone they like the fact is they sold Stewart and Hemmings their main source of goals and replaced it with dross this season, I dont see any manager suddenly making them a free scoring team all of a sudden. They are welcome to Mark McGhee.

[Ya Bezzer!]

Don't want to tempt fate with a game coming up but I'd say Dundee have the poorest squad in the division, or at least the least quality.

 

There are players from all the other Bottom 6 teams I'd have at Fir Park whether it be Greg Tansey, Ali Crawford, Gary Dicker, Liam Boyce etc but you are really struggling to pick any one out of the Dundee squad.

 

Mark O'Hara is probably their best player.

[Goggles & Flippers]

Based on Ya Bezzer's stats of those around us in the bottom 6:

 

P15 W7 D5 L3

 

With 5 games left to play we'd hope to continue to trend and look for 2 wins, 2 draws and a loss following our form thus far.

 

That equates to 8 points, final total of 40 and guaranteed safety. Easier said than done.

 

Dundee have to be considered a new animal due to the new manager factor.