Del_Superwell Posted July 31, 2017 Report Share Posted July 31, 2017 I noticed in the paper today thats now 12 cup draws in a row that Rangers have had a home tie since 2015 surely thats not a coincidence? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
numpty Posted July 31, 2017 Report Share Posted July 31, 2017 I noticed in the paper today thats now 12 cup draws in a row that Rangers have had a home tie since 2015 surely thats not a coincidence? As somebody says every time, so I'll be That Guy this time: if the draw is truly random, as we'd all hope it is, then that's just as likely to happen as any other sequence of home and away ties they could've had. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frazzie Posted July 31, 2017 Report Share Posted July 31, 2017 As somebody says every time, so I'll be That Guy this time: if the draw is truly random, as we'd all hope it is, then that's just as likely to happen as any other sequence of home and away ties they could've had. Of course that's true but have you ever flipped heads over tails a dozen times on the bounce? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
numpty Posted July 31, 2017 Report Share Posted July 31, 2017 Of course that's true but have you ever flipped heads over tails a dozen times on the bounce? Not to my recollection, but, as you say, it doesn't really matter. The next 12 I flip are still always just as likely to be all heads as any of the other 4095 outcomes... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmcalpin Posted July 31, 2017 Report Share Posted July 31, 2017 As somebody says every time, so I'll be That Guy this time: if the draw is truly random, as we'd all hope it is, then that's just as likely to happen as any other sequence of home and away ties they could've had. Am I right in saying that the probability of 12 home ties on the trot is 1 in 4,096? Maybe the statisticians on this board could verify this? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
numpty Posted July 31, 2017 Report Share Posted July 31, 2017 Am I right in saying that the probability of 12 home ties on the trot is 1 in 4,096? Maybe the statisticians on this board could verify this? Yep, that's my recollection from stats classes 20-odd years ago.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weeyin Posted July 31, 2017 Report Share Posted July 31, 2017 Of course that's true but have you ever flipped heads over tails a dozen times on the bounce? When kids are learning about probability, there's a classic experiment teachers often use. They split the class into 2 groups. First group tosses a coin 500 times and records the results. Second group writes down the results of what they think the results of tossing a coin 500 times would look like. Teacher is presented with both sets of results and has to identify which ones are from the actual coin toss. Teacher is always correct, because the actual coin toss generates sequences of events (such as 12 consecutive heads) that the "guessing" group never predicts. The group without the coin thinks that their results should be about 50/50 and consecutive heads or tails should never be in a sequence of more than 3 or 4. While a fair coin toss will eventually converge to 50% heads and 50% tails, that happens only when you approach an infinite number of coin tosses. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weeyin Posted July 31, 2017 Report Share Posted July 31, 2017 Am I right in saying that the probability of 12 home ties on the trot is 1 in 4,096? Maybe the statisticians on this board could verify this? However, the odds of H,H,H,H,H,H,H,H,H,H,H,H are exactly the same as the odds for H,A,H,H,A,A,A,H,H,A,H,A. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dezz Posted July 31, 2017 Report Share Posted July 31, 2017 Am I right in saying that the probability of 12 home ties on the trot is 1 in 4,096? Maybe the statisticians on this board could verify this? Yup i believe that's right. 2 to the power of 12. Or another way to word it is Rangers are jammy bastards. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
milo Posted July 31, 2017 Report Share Posted July 31, 2017 They authorities long since gave up the presence that they are impartial. Not only have they been drawn at home, they've also never had a top 6 team and on the odd occasion they have been drawn away, it's certainly never to Pittodrie, Easter Road etc. They home ties they've had since they died have been incredible. Not that I'm paranoid..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weeyin Posted July 31, 2017 Report Share Posted July 31, 2017 I have no doubt the authorities favour the OF in many ways. I'd be surprised if all of the non-OF people that have been directly involved in the draws are covering a conspiracy. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitch Posted July 31, 2017 Report Share Posted July 31, 2017 I've been in the casino where Black has been 10+. Always get some clown going on about the sequence and it must be red next... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmcalpin Posted July 31, 2017 Report Share Posted July 31, 2017 However, the odds of H,H,H,H,H,H,H,H,H,H,H,H are exactly the same as the odds for H,A,H,H,A,A,A,H,H,A,H,A. Maybe splitting hairs Weeyin but aren't you comparing permutations as opposed to combinations? The odds of being drawn at home 12 times out of 12 will be somewhat less than the odds of being drawn at home 6 times out of 12? For example the permutation you cite has the same combination ie 6 home draws as H,H,H,H,H,H,A,A,A,A,A,A. There will be a number of permutations which result in 6 home draws out of 12 but only which results in 12 out of 12. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GazzyB Posted July 31, 2017 Report Share Posted July 31, 2017 The odds are 50/50. Either it happens or it doesn't. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
numpty Posted July 31, 2017 Report Share Posted July 31, 2017 The odds are 50/50. Either it happens or it doesn't. Only if there's an equal likelihood of it happening or not. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weeyin Posted July 31, 2017 Report Share Posted July 31, 2017 I'm only pointing out (in a roundabout way) that 12 sequential home ties is well within the statistical norm for such a minuscule sample size. Humans are just really bad about estimating probability and risk. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steelboy Posted August 1, 2017 Report Share Posted August 1, 2017 Compared to what? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weeyin Posted August 1, 2017 Report Share Posted August 1, 2017 Compared to what? Compared to be being really good at estimating probability and risk (obviously). On the other hand, humans are really good at pattern recognition. In general, that has been an evolutionary advantage, but it's also one of the factors that leads to poor estimation of probabilities - they think patterns and clusters in independent events mean certain things are more likely to happen (as in Mitch's roulette example). 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superward Posted August 1, 2017 Report Share Posted August 1, 2017 In short - there is no conspiracy. Shit just happens. One positive is it gets Celtic fans riled a plenty. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wellfan1984 Posted August 1, 2017 Report Share Posted August 1, 2017 In short - there is no conspiracy. Shit just happens. One positive is it gets Celtic fans riled a plenty. This is the correct answer Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frazzie Posted August 1, 2017 Report Share Posted August 1, 2017 I didn't say anything about a conspiracy- I was just pointing out that 12 home draws on the bounce is an unlikely pattern. Absolutely correct to point out that it's as unlikely as any other combination but it is a more noticeable pattern. I also think it would have received much more media coverage had they been away a dozen times in a row, which is apparently just as likely. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmcalpin Posted August 2, 2017 Report Share Posted August 2, 2017 I was just pointing out that 12 home draws on the bounce is an unlikely pattern. Absolutely correct to point out that it's as unlikely as any other combination but it is a more noticeable pattern. I also think it would have received much more media coverage had they been away a dozen times in a row, which is apparently just as likely. Basically agree. However over the course of 12 draws, the only equally unlikely combination is 12 aways. 11 homes and 1 away is slightly more likely. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
milo Posted August 2, 2017 Report Share Posted August 2, 2017 I bet they don't get Celtic, Hibs, or Aberdeen in the next round either. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steelboy Posted August 2, 2017 Report Share Posted August 2, 2017 Basically agree. However over the course of 12 draws, the only equally unlikely combination is 12 aways. 11 homes and 1 away is slightly more likely. Tory voters..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmcalpin Posted August 2, 2017 Report Share Posted August 2, 2017 Tory voters..... Sorry, I don't understand. I don't see the connection. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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