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Scottish Premiership Game 28: Dundee (A) 24/02/18 15:00


Yabba's Turd
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We're on to Dundee...

While we have your attention, there may be a forum upgrade on the way this week, it should happen overnight between 10 p.m. and 7 a.m. Things will look a little different initially and the good old shoutbox may disappear for a while, the new forum software is rock solid and we are overdue an upgrade.

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I said a while back that from our 4 games in February v St Johnstone, Patrick, Killie and Dundee that we should be looking to take a minimum of 7 points. Were in 4 at the moment so its still achievable.

 

Anything less than 7 and its a really poor haul v our peer group.

 

Defeat here and Id say we were back in the mix at the bottom.

 

Hopefully Campbell and Kipre are back.

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We carried a bit of luck against Dundee this season.

 

The match at Fir Park we were poor and only got a draw due to a penalty. In the previous league match Dundee had a good goal disallowed that allowed us to win the match and in the Cup we've won with a goalkeeper howler and an OG.

 

Makes you wonder with all the talk of 'things evening out'.

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We carried a bit of luck against Dundee this season.

 

The match at Fir Park we were poor and only got a draw due to a penalty. In the previous league match Dundee had a good goal disallowed that allowed us to win the match and in the Cup we've won with a goalkeeper howler and an OG.

 

Makes you wonder with all the talk of 'things evening out'.

A myth that Dundee had a good goal disallowed - play had stopped as the referee had already blown the whistle from our vantage point.

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We carried a bit of luck against Dundee this season.

 

The match at Fir Park we were poor and only got a draw due to a penalty. In the previous league match Dundee had a good goal disallowed that allowed us to win the match and in the Cup we've won with a goalkeeper howler and an OG.

 

Makes you wonder with all the talk of 'things evening out'.

 

We had a good goal chopped off in the cup game and played them off the park for the majority of the league game at Dens. We had some luck in the second half at Fir Park but not as much as they had playing against 10 men four of whom were visibly injured.

 

We have their number this season and we should be looking for three points here.

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We carried a bit of luck against Dundee this season.

 

The match at Fir Park we were poor and only got a draw due to a penalty. In the previous league match Dundee had a good goal disallowed that allowed us to win the match and in the Cup we've won with a goalkeeper howler and an OG.

 

Makes you wonder with all the talk of 'things evening out'.

In the match at Fir Park, the penalty was correctly awarded when O'Hara brought down Kipre. I don't call that good luck. O'Hara made a slightly rash challenge and rightly got penalised for it. In the same game Andy Rose was incorrectly yellow carded for diving; I term that bad luck. In the previous league game at Dens, the referee had already blown and play stopped before the Dundee player put the ball in the net.

 

As far as the recent cup encounter goes, Tanner did well to get his shot on target and the keeper made a blunder, just plain poor goalkeeping not good luck for us. Aldred's goal was wrongly chopped off; that was bad luck. For our second goal Main did well to harry the defender. The defender, Holt I think, made a blunder and Parrish didn't look clever either. Again examples of rank poor defending, not luck. Had Holt aimed his header outwith the posts and the ball had taken a random and awkward bounce at the last minute and landed in the net, I would have termed that bad luck. Dundee were very fortunate not to pick up 2 red cards and yes we should have lost Ciftci to one.

 

I also want to reassure Al B that I don't maintain a spreadsheet going back 48 years or whatever detailing every single perceived injustice or instance of bad luck; but I can't speak for other posters. I simply look back over a season or half season and take an overall view. Last season was memorable for not being awarded goals when the ball had the crossed the line and several wrong offside decisions, and this season, so far, for wrongly given/not given penalties.

 

Do many posters really believe that our luck against Rangers & Celtic has evened itself out over the years?

Before I finish I'll readily admit that on some occasions we do benefit from good luck, but they are in the minority.

 

Apologies for wandering off topic.

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Does luck exist? That's the real question.

You're being very existentialist, mon vieux, but that's an excellent question. When I think of that and Kmcalpin's query re decisions against us with the Ugly Sisters evening out over the years, I always return to Bob Crampsey's (Brain of Britain and footballing intellectual) retort to those who questioned if there was bias towards the Old Firm.

 

Remember, he had been watching our game weekly since the 40s. He was quite unequivocal that bias has always existed towards the OF and thought any suggestion to the contrary ridiculous.

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You're being very existentialist, mon vieux, but that's an excellent question. When I think of that and Kmcalpin's query re decisions against us with the Ugly Sisters evening out over the years, I always return to Bob Crampsey's (Brain of Britain and footballing intellectual) retort to those who questioned if there was bias towards the Old Firm.

 

Remember, he had been watching our game weekly since the 40s. He was quite unequivocal that bias has always existed towards the OF and thought any suggestion to the contrary ridiculous.

So its all down to bias - and refs are biased shits

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42 minutes ago, robsterwood said:

1 win will see us safe and we can then plan for next season also, and focus on cup.  Killie look like getn 6th.  We will also play a part in who goes down and hopefully finish 7th.

I would say at least 2 or 3 wins to ensure safety the magic number always seems to be at least 40 points going on previous seasons, I don't think any team has gone down with that total.

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Since the play-offs were introduced, the team in 11th has finished with 35 or 36 points so a couple of wins should see us OK. Especially if one of those is against Accies.

 

Also, the game is on Alba, as live, 6pm & 10.55pm

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24 minutes ago, scoojy said:

Since the play-offs were introduced, the team in 11th has finished with 35 or 36 points so a couple of wins should see us OK. Especially if one of those is against Accies.

Also, the game is on Alba, as live, 6pm & 10.55pm

Here you go, 11th place over the  past 10 seasons:
16/17 - 11th: 35 pts
15/16 - 11th : 36 pts
14/15 - 11th: 36 pts
13/14 - 11th: 35 pts
12/13 - 11th: 41 pts
11/12 - 11th: 33 pts
10/11 - 11th: 33 pts
09/10 - 11th: 33 pts
08/09 - 11th: 37 pts
07/08 - 11th: 40 pts

The only real anomalies there are 12/13 and 07/08 which were Dundee's Club 12 season and Gretna's swansong.

Remove those as outliers and you're looking at 11th spot being on average 34.75 points so realistically 38 points or above is likely to be guaranteed as finishing above 11th in a normal season.

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5 hours ago, capt_oats said:

Here you go, 11th place over the  past 10 seasons:
16/17 - 11th: 35 pts
15/16 - 11th : 36 pts
14/15 - 11th: 36 pts
13/14 - 11th: 35 pts
12/13 - 11th: 41 pts
11/12 - 11th: 33 pts
10/11 - 11th: 33 pts
09/10 - 11th: 33 pts
08/09 - 11th: 37 pts
07/08 - 11th: 40 pts

The only real anomalies there are 12/13 and 07/08 which were Dundee's Club 12 season and Gretna's swansong.

Remove those as outliers and you're looking at 11th spot being on average 34.75 points so realistically 38 points or above is likely to be guaranteed as finishing above 11th in a normal season.

38 points you say? So beat Dundee tomorrow and Aberdeen midweek and we're home and dry - sounds easy when you say it like that!

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