Robinson... How Do We Think He's Doing ?

[David]

It's easy for the fans to just say "bin him, get him tae fuck," but the club actually have to weigh up the very serious pros and cons of sacking a manager at this stage of the season.

Look at the facts.

We're 9th. We're 7 clear of Accies, we're 9 clear of St Mirren, and we're 11 clear of Dundee. For St Mirren to catch us we'd need to drop 3 games while they win 3 games. They've won 3 games all season. For Dundee to catch us we'd need to drop 3 games, draw 2 and they'd need to double the amount of points they've won all season. Dundee have won twice this season.

We're 8 points behind Hibs in 8th. We're not catching them. 

At worst we're looking at a 10th finish, if somehow Accies manage to suddenly go on a run while we lose.

Granted, we're poor, but we're still better than the clubs below us, which is all that matters for now. Robinson knows the players, and can get the minimum that he needs from them.

We're out of both cups. 

If any club happens to be sniffing around Robinson, there's a better chance he moves in the summer. We waive the compensation we'd be due, we part ways. We could then bring a new manager in with a clean slate. We have a fair amount of players out of contract this summer, so there's going to be the chance to make big changes. 

There's also a wider range of choice in the summer as far as managers go.

Or, we could roll the dice and bump the manager just now.

We'd likely need to pay him off. He's got a contract until May 2020, so unless he's secretly loaded I don't see him walking away from a contract without another job to go to.

We either appoint someone on an interim basis, or we grab someone from the slim pickings that's available at this time of year. 

The new manager comes in and has to hit the ground running. These aren't his players, and chances are we can't shift many until the summer. 

We run the risk of total collapse, which we've seen happen elsewhere.

I know this isn't the answer folk want to hear, but the smart choice is riding this wave of mediocrity until the summer. At that point we can reassess, we've got a lot of players with contracts up so if a new manager is coming in he gets a clean slate to work with.

The only way I see Robbo going before the summer is if we get another club wanting him this season, or if we collapse and end up in danger of the drop. Bearing in mind that this would also involve one or both clubs at the bottom seriously getting their act together as well.

 

[Great Balls of Shire]

4 hours ago, steelboy said:

If replicate our form now over the full season we will finish with four home wins. Who knows though maybe the mysterious remit doesn't involve winning at home?

The crowd was shite yesterday and is going to be worse on Wednesday. The style of football is putting people off, you can actually tell now that loads of people don't even care about being in for kickoff as you're not going to miss anything.

The crowd yesterday was on the back of a win against Accies and two weeks with no football think the sad truth is there isn't an appetite anymore for football in the area. 

The crowd on Wednesday will be poor, I am undecided, that's down to the attitude and display yesterday tho. 

[Kmcalpin]

Apologies - double post.

[Kmcalpin]

As Andy P and some others point out you're wrong, Steelboy. Generally speaking cup attendances at this stage are habitually poor compared to league attendances, due mainly to the fact that season ticket holders have to pay to get in.  Quality/size of opposition is also a contributory factor. Consider these stats from today and yesterday (Cup attendance as a rough percentage of average league attendances):

The figures are rough, not precise, and exclude Rangers & Celtic games.   They also don't take into account away supports eg Ross County brought less than 200 to Fir Park.  Of all the Premiership clubs playing at home we fared generally well as did St Johnstone and Kilmarnock.  St Mirren, Celtic, Dundee and Hibs fared relatively poorly.  In absolute terms we had higher attendances than St Johnstone, St Mirren, and Dundee. Without debating exact figures, we can conclude that our attendance yesterday compared very well with other Premiership clubs and in no way reflected badly on our support or club. 

I know there there is apathy creeping in amongst our support and that might well be reflected in future attendances but simply looking at yesterday that was not really reflected in the size of the crowd.  

[stuwell]

11 hours ago, GrahamH said:

I’d have had him out before Christmas. It’s then down to those in charge to make the right choice for his replacement.

So you’re happy to let those in charge use their judgment to pick his replacement but you’re not happy to let them keep him if they think he’s the best guy for the job?

[Pettywulliegrew-2]

1 hour ago, Kmcalpin said:

As Andy P and some others point out you're wrong, Steelboy. Generally speaking cup attendances at this stage are habitually poor compared to league attendances, due mainly to the fact that season ticket holders have to pay to get in.  Quality/size of opposition is also a contributory factor. Consider these stats from today and yesterday (Cup attendance as a rough percentage of average league attendances):

The figures are rough, not precise, and exclude Rangers & Celtic games.   They also don't take into account away supports eg Ross County brought less than 200 to Fir Park.  Of all the Premiership clubs playing at home we fared generally well as did St Johnstone and Kilmarnock.  St Mirren, Celtic, Dundee and Hibs fared relatively poorly.  In absolute terms we had higher attendances than St Johnstone, St Mirren, and Dundee. Without debating exact figures, we can conclude that our attendance yesterday compared very well with other Premiership clubs and in no way reflected badly on our support or club. 

I know there there is apathy creeping in amongst our support and that might well be reflected in future attendances but simply looking at yesterday that was not really reflected in the size of the crowd.  

Think the English Premiership has down graded the FA cup with teams playing under strength teams to try and stay in the league as the bigger picture........and  it has rubbed off up here......im sure you used to get the 3rd round on the season ticket

The old"third" round of the cup used to be a big thing when I was younger ,can always remember the claret and Amber rosettes in the late 60s early 70s and every one was "Up for the Cup"......... Tragic days......quarter final defeat against Killie at FP......... away 1-3 Stirling Albion.....Wednesday afternoon kick off replaygame against Ayr .....then losing to the ugly sisters after replays......Dixie scoring for Smeltic in quarter final replay under the lights at FP.........then the unmentionable in 1975........hibs X 3 in 76 quarter final.......28000 at FP against St Midden 1977 Fergie Fergie shut yer mouth........we always seemed to get the old firm (especially Rangers)who knocked us out regular basis 4/5 times in the mid 70sc

[GrahamH]

6 hours ago, stuwell said:

So you’re happy to let those in charge use their judgment to pick his replacement but you’re not happy to let them keep him if they think he’s the best guy for the job?

If you look at the original post that I responded to you might understand the context a bit better.

[Shaka]

10 hours ago, David said:

It's easy for the fans to just say "bin him, get him tae fuck," but the club actually have to weigh up the very serious pros and cons of sacking a manager at this stage of the season.

Look at the facts.

We're 9th. We're 7 clear of Accies, we're 9 clear of St Mirren, and we're 11 clear of Dundee. For St Mirren to catch us we'd need to drop 3 games while they win 3 games. They've won 3 games all season. For Dundee to catch us we'd need to drop 3 games, draw 2 and they'd need to double the amount of points they've won all season. Dundee have won twice this season.

We're 8 points behind Hibs in 8th. We're not catching them. 

At worst we're looking at a 10th finish, if somehow Accies manage to suddenly go on a run while we lose.

Granted, we're poor, but we're still better than the clubs below us, which is all that matters for now. Robinson knows the players, and can get the minimum that he needs from them.

We're out of both cups. 

If any club happens to be sniffing around Robinson, there's a better chance he moves in the summer. We waive the compensation we'd be due, we part ways. We could then bring a new manager in with a clean slate. We have a fair amount of players out of contract this summer, so there's going to be the chance to make big changes. 

There's also a wider range of choice in the summer as far as managers go.

Or, we could roll the dice and bump the manager just now.

We'd likely need to pay him off. He's got a contract until May 2020, so unless he's secretly loaded I don't see him walking away from a contract without another job to go to.

We either appoint someone on an interim basis, or we grab someone from the slim pickings that's available at this time of year. 

The new manager comes in and has to hit the ground running. These aren't his players, and chances are we can't shift many until the summer. 

We run the risk of total collapse, which we've seen happen elsewhere.

I know this isn't the answer folk want to hear, but the smart choice is riding this wave of mediocrity until the summer. At that point we can reassess, we've got a lot of players with contracts up so if a new manager is coming in he gets a clean slate to work with.

The only way I see Robbo going before the summer is if we get another club wanting him this season, or if we collapse and end up in danger of the drop. Bearing in mind that this would also involve one or both clubs at the bottom seriously getting their act together as well.

 

Sensible post, I understand exactly what You are saying, but I have a different viewpoint on it. Weve fucked it up now by not getting rid in Nov / early Dec. Now any potential new Management team wont get to sign any players, however, they would get a few months to assess the current squad and work out who is worth a contract.

Any move is a gamble, but its clear looking at our league results over the last 14 months that the Managers time is up. Apart from a Scottish Cup run last season (which did involve a good skelping of luck), we have been utterly utterly dismal for 14 solid months, and now this season, that poor form has run into both cups which in turn will have seriously hit us in the pocket. Im not sure I know of any club in the world where such garbage would have been tolerated for so long! 

We get a new management team in, they assess the squad (the majority of whom will be playing for contracts!) and we hit the ground running come the summer. What we dont need is to wait for the summer, then decide to sack Robbo & start a manager hunt. Its likely to be mid June before the new guy starts which gives zero time to assess things and get signings in. 

[Gadgey]

12 hours ago, David said:

It's easy for the fans to just say "bin him, get him tae fuck," but the club actually have to weigh up the very serious pros and cons of sacking a manager at this stage of the season.

Look at the facts.

We're 9th. We're 7 clear of Accies, we're 9 clear of St Mirren, and we're 11 clear of Dundee. For St Mirren to catch us we'd need to drop 3 games while they win 3 games. They've won 3 games all season. For Dundee to catch us we'd need to drop 3 games, draw 2 and they'd need to double the amount of points they've won all season. Dundee have won twice this season.

We're 8 points behind Hibs in 8th. We're not catching them. 

At worst we're looking at a 10th finish, if somehow Accies manage to suddenly go on a run while we lose.

Granted, we're poor, but we're still better than the clubs below us, which is all that matters for now. Robinson knows the players, and can get the minimum that he needs from them.

We're out of both cups. 

If any club happens to be sniffing around Robinson, there's a better chance he moves in the summer. We waive the compensation we'd be due, we part ways. We could then bring a new manager in with a clean slate. We have a fair amount of players out of contract this summer, so there's going to be the chance to make big changes. 

There's also a wider range of choice in the summer as far as managers go.

Or, we could roll the dice and bump the manager just now.

We'd likely need to pay him off. He's got a contract until May 2020, so unless he's secretly loaded I don't see him walking away from a contract without another job to go to.

We either appoint someone on an interim basis, or we grab someone from the slim pickings that's available at this time of year. 

The new manager comes in and has to hit the ground running. These aren't his players, and chances are we can't shift many until the summer. 

We run the risk of total collapse, which we've seen happen elsewhere.

I know this isn't the answer folk want to hear, but the smart choice is riding this wave of mediocrity until the summer. At that point we can reassess, we've got a lot of players with contracts up so if a new manager is coming in he gets a clean slate to work with.

The only way I see Robbo going before the summer is if we get another club wanting him this season, or if we collapse and end up in danger of the drop. Bearing in mind that this would also involve one or both clubs at the bottom seriously getting their act together as well.

 

You’ve nailed it. Taking the emotion out of the situation, this is a really well considered take on the difficult decision that the board will have to make. 

For a club with our limited level of spending capacity, the appointment of the manager is perhaps the riskiest decision of all and one that cannot be made on impulse or in any way reactionary without consideration being made to all factors.

Nothing in life is guaranteed and there a number of external variables that could play out to our detriment between now and the end of the season. 

Like any decision when considering risk and consequence, there are patterns and trends that will enable justification for a decision though.

Both St Mirren and Dundee have changed manager to little effect. As shite as it is, the likelihood of a sharp upward trend in our performances is unlikely if we changed manager. Our current trend with the current manager should be enough to see us through.

For me, if he was to be sacked this season, then he should’ve been given his jotters in the Autumn. My heart says punt him and punt him now and my head says let him go to the end of the season and begin looking for his replacement now.

[El Grew]

If we are going to change manager what about considering Gary Naismith at QOS,  Ian Murray at Airdrie, Ian McCall at Ayr Utd.  Not on the usual managerial merry-go-round and all have done quite well at lesser clubs.

[livivoice]

As with others I am not calling for Robinson`s dismissal. His achievements last season give him leeway

On Saturday though I feel he made a serious miscalculation re Ross County. Bottom line is that I feel he grossly underestimated County due to their poor form and missing players. I also think he may have had in his mind how unimpressive County had been against the colts.

As a result I think he believed he could get away with giving Mc Cormack a `run out` when clearly unfit and Ayiribi who struggled with the system .  Add to this he left both Campbell and Grimshaw on the bench a decision which left us numerically exposed in midfield and without the combative elements which we sorely needed.  The knock on effect was that Mc Hugh was left to do the `dirty work` himself whilst Turnbull drifted further back the longer the game ran.

A further example of his underestimation was that he did not have a defender on the bench.  Note he had the fit  Mbulu and Livingston in Tenerife . Also Donnelly was there but to be fair I can be sure he has fully recovered. As for ATS he may have been available but I cant be sure given his injury record.

All in all a miserable Saturday.

 

[Kmcalpin]

Just listened to Robbo's interview and I get the impression that the pressure is getting to him; he was quite defensive.  Interesting that he didn't seem to think that playing MacCormack from the start was a mistake.  Suggests to me that we underestimated County and thought that we could afford to give MacCormack a 45 minute training exercise. Interesting too that he admitted playing Johnson as a lone striker/target man was a mistake.    That baffles me, because we as posters, are not professional football managers  yet many of us thought that was the wrong role for Johnson, especially against a big physical defence.  If we could see it why couldn't he before kick off?  

Our previous style of football has been sussed by other clubs and we do need to change and evolve but it seems to me that he tried to do it too suddenly in one fell swoop on Saturday without having the players to do it. 

[DEWELL]

I agree that Robinson wont leave till the end of the season. Between now and then i'll be going to only a handfull of games. Im sure a lot of fans will feel the same. He should've went tail end of last year and now we're stuck with him.

[Mitch]

2 minutes ago, DEWELL said:

I agree that Robinson wont leave till the end of the season. Between now and then i'll be going to only a handfull of games. Im sure a lot of fans will feel the same. He should've went tail end of last year and now we're stuck with him.

His time is well and truly up. We should be bringing the new man in so he can assess the squad before the summer. 

Robinson has a habit of just doing enough to relieve the pressure. I don’t think he will manage it this time.

Defeat on Wednesday and at Dens and he is gone!

[Ya Bezzer!]

23 hours ago, Busta Nut said:

 

 

I know what Brown did.

 

It was a fucking decade ago. We need someone to organise and prepare things? Yes, absolutely.

I don't think we have to go for an old Scottish fitba favourite type.

Well depends if they are better than the likes of Gannon, Barraclough and Robinson.

Doesn't need to be an 'old Scottish fitba favourite' type but I'll take any competent manager over any of these  chancers who's many qualification seems to be enthusiasm and positivity like some half wit office team leader rather than someone steeped in tactical knowledge of football.

[Andy_P]

5 hours ago, Shaka said:

Sensible post, I understand exactly what You are saying, but I have a different viewpoint on it. Weve fucked it up now by not getting rid in Nov / early Dec. Now any potential new Management team wont get to sign any players, however, they would get a few months to assess the current squad and work out who is worth a contract.

Any move is a gamble, but its clear looking at our league results over the last 14 months that the Managers time is up. Apart from a Scottish Cup run last season (which did involve a good skelping of luck), we have been utterly utterly dismal for 14 solid months, and now this season, that poor form has run into both cups which in turn will have seriously hit us in the pocket. Im not sure I know of any club in the world where such garbage would have been tolerated for so long! 

We get a new management team in, they assess the squad (the majority of whom will be playing for contracts!) and we hit the ground running come the summer. What we dont need is to wait for the summer, then decide to sack Robbo & start a manager hunt. Its likely to be mid June before the new guy starts which gives zero time to assess things and get signings in. 

With all the information, statistics, footage and whatever else is at a manager's disposal these days if any prospective manager pitches up at Fir Park looking for work and genuinely requires months to assess what he has to work with, then he clearly hasn't done his due diligence and won't be getting anywhere near the manager's office.

[MelvinBragg]

1 minute ago, Andy_P said:

With all the information, statistics, footage and whatever else is at a manager's disposal these days if any prospective manager pitches up at Fir Park looking for work and genuinely requires months to assess what he has to work with, then he clearly hasn't done his due diligence and won't be getting anywhere near the manager's office.

That's a fair point but any new manager might be unaware of how those not in the team perform in training. If a candidate was basing his assessment on what he's seen on the park this season, he'd bin 90% of the squad. But maybe seeing the lesser spotted Gorrin, Livingstone or Scott in training, he might feel there are options that aren't immediately obvious if you're just looking at match performance statistics...

[David]

6 hours ago, Shaka said:

Now any potential new Management team wont get to sign any players, however, they would get a few months to assess the current squad and work out who is worth a contract.

The one hole in that viewpoint for me is that the new management team may not actually be available right now. There's usually pretty slim pickings available at this time of year, which is another reason to wait until the summer.

If I was the man making the decisions I'd already be quietly looking for Robinson's replacement. I wouldn't disrespect him or Lasley by actually sounding anyone out, but I'd be drawing up a shortlist of who I think would be available in the summer and who'd fit the bill.

Come seasons end we thank Robinson for his efforts and move quickly for a new manager, who will have a good budget to play with as there's quite a few players due to move on I think. 

[santheman]

For me it all depends if he is still commanding the respect of the dressing room, it certainly didn't look like it on Saturday judging by the look on some of the players faces at the end of the match (although I do accept it may have been nothing more than the disappointment of losing the game)

[Burn_Broomfield]

It's a big problem this team faces if they aren't 100% "at it".   We've committed to signing grafters over genuine ability and last season it worked, but this season, through various reasons, those grafters haven't been at 100% which  gives us no leeway in our game plan to make up for the distinct lack of ability in our side.  Robinson has been extremely fortunate to have young Turnbull come into the side and add some much needed ability, but he can't do it on his own.

Whether the manager has lost the dressing room or the players have chucked it, but the desire and intensity shown last season just isn't there at all.

[TwistAndShout]

I'd say half of the side on Saturday were at it, but maybe not in the accepted context of football these days and the more old fashioned sense.

Was interesting at one point to see Hartley having a go at Aldred and Gillespie for passing out from the back so the players seem mixed on the passing versus lumping it forward.

If he can change the style quickly the whole outlook may change, but for the first time in a long time the thought of going to see us play is filling me with dread. 

Robinson and this squad have a strange knack of winning games that they are written off in so he can obviously motivate them... The worry is the games they are expected to win are more often than not ending in defeat this season.

[David]

1 hour ago, Burn_Broomfield said:

We've committed to signing grafters over genuine ability and last season it worked, but this season, through various reasons, those grafters haven't been at 100% which  gives us no leeway in our game plan to make up for the distinct lack of ability in our side.

Is it really a choice though? Are many players with genuine ability within our price range? I've found that most of the players we sign who are regarded as "proper" footballers are extremely erratic and usually come in for a world of abuse from fans who bemoan their ability to track back and "get stuck in."

 

[Kmcalpin]

2 hours ago, santheman said:

For me it all depends if he is still commanding the respect of the dressing room, it certainly didn't look like it on Saturday judging by the look on some of the players faces at the end of the match (although I do accept it may have been nothing more than the disappointment of losing the game)

Fair point. Going by reports more than a few players didn't know where they were meant to be playing and/or weren't clear about their role.  I suspect a fair few also took the same view as we fans when they learnt the team i.e. Whats that????

[Yorkyred]

Summer is the time to appoint a new manager. Better availability of candidates/players and as full a playing budget as you are going  to get. If a new manager can’t see whats  needed and replace he’s the wrong appointment. Any half on it board will already be sounding out a replacement behind the scenes if they know what they are intending doing.

[star sail]

8 hours ago, Ya Bezzer! said:

Well depends if they are better than the likes of Gannon, Barraclough and Robinson.

Doesn't need to be an 'old Scottish fitba favourite' type but I'll take any competent manager over any of these  chancers who's many qualification seems to be enthusiasm and positivity like some half wit office team leader rather than someone steeped in tactical knowledge of football.

Interesting to read some of the Craig Brown comments. Sometimes I think that many fans buy into a Scottish good, non Scottish bad mentality. Interesting that the three managers you mention are non- Scottish. What about Malpas (26% win), McLeish (28% win), Davies (31% win)? Does enthusiasm and positivity make you a chancer? If it does Maurice Malpas was certainly no chancer!!!

Here is a couple of facts regarding the names you mention. Jim Gannon left the club in late December 2009 when we were 6th in the league. We finished that season 5th under Brown.  Gannon had to perform one of the biggest rebuilding jobs in the club recent history after one of the other 'old Scottish fitba favourites' Mark McGhee left us in a shambolic state.

Baraclough's win record at Motherwell was 34%. Craig Browns win record at Aberdeen was 33%. I am not trying to argue that Craig Brown was a poor manager, far from it, he was the right man at the right time for our club. It's just that the records of our  foreign chancers are not as poor as some would have us believe.

My point is that all the managers mentioned contributed in their own way. Gannon rebuilt a depleted squad, Baraclough saved us from relegation as did Robinson when he came in. It seems to me that there are some sections of our support that give managers a tougher critique when they are not Scottish.