Run in to the split - Predictions

[bobbybingo]

9 minutes ago, ropy said:

I think the Saints can still swap places

Good news for us if both are going all out for a win, given they're playing Hamilton and Ross County.

Edit: as Kat just said.

[Pettywulliegrew-2]

That’s every one on the same games......actual and possible points if somebody by some miracle string 6 wins on the trot......massive game next Saturday at Rugby  Park ....... and with both Saints chasing the last top 6 place  St Midden v Accies  & St John v Ross County .....Arabs v Sheep

Lots of 6 pointers

St. John  37    55

arabs       36     54

Well         35     53

RCFC.     29     47 

Accies.   26      44

Killie       25      43

[ropy]

8 minutes ago, Kat said:

Fruitful set of results today, I thought Hamilton might have snuck a result as they have proved to be a turd that just wont flush. It would be nice to go into the split with no real relegation fears. St Mirren need to beat Hamilton to secure that top six berth and St Johnstone play County who are on great form so next week will be interesting.

I would like to see Hamilton get a draw (not much damage to us) and St Johnstone to win.  This would leave St Mirren in the bottom six and give us a chance to finish above them as we have done every season since 1989.

[Welldaft Mk1]

6 minutes ago, ropy said:

I would like to see Hamilton get a draw (not much damage to us) and St Johnstone to win.  This would leave St Mirren in the bottom six and give us a chance to finish above them as we have done every season since 1989.

I am good with this scenario Ropy. 
Getting a bit cocky the Paisley buddies. 

[milo]

Great results for us today. 

[FirParkCornerExile]

55 minutes ago, Toxteth O'Grady said:

Apologies, you are correct

Really hope St Mirren fuck it up, id love to finish above them and shut those cocky bastards up.

[santheman]

1 hour ago, milo said:

Great results for us today. 

Only one small drawback in that it might give Killie a glimmer of hope and make it a harder game for us next week.

Still think we'll be too strong for them though.

[Yassin]

2 hours ago, ropy said:

I would like to see Hamilton get a draw (not much damage to us) and St Johnstone to win.  This would leave St Mirren in the bottom six and give us a chance to finish above them as we have done every season since 1989.

If this happens I'm getting permabanned from Pie and Bovril before the end of the day.

[ropy]

Just now, Yassin said:

If this happens I'm getting permabanned from Pie and Bovril before the end of the day.

Play nice 

[FirParkCornerExile]

7 hours ago, santheman said:

Only one small drawback in that it might give Killie a glimmer of hope and make it a harder game for us next week.

Still think we'll be too strong for them though.

Killie have more than a glimmer of hope they are only  a win and a draw  from a safe spot. If they reach the head to heads no more than 3 points  adrift its any two of the bottom 3  will go down.  Their goal difference is vastly superior to Accies and Ross County. Ill be delighted with a win but I'd happily take a draw.  We are fortunate that draws arent a disaster for us whereas Killie and Accies must get wins  still wont settle until its mathematically impossible.

[ropy]

19 hours ago, Pettywulliegrew-2 said:

That’s every one on the same games......actual and possible points if somebody by some miracle string 6 wins on the trot......massive game next Saturday at Rugby  Park ....... and with both Saints chasing the last top 6 place  St Midden v Accies  & St John v Ross County .....Arabs v Sheep

Lots of 6 pointers

St. John  37    55

arabs       36     54

Well         35     53

RCFC.     29     47 

Accies.   26      44

Killie       25      43

If Killie get 43, Accies can only get 41, and if that happens Ross County can only get 41.  So that is the target with a better goal difference. However every point that these teams drop reduces that target further.

[grumpy]

My opinion, for what it's worth, is  whoever finishes bottom will have fewer than 35 points and second bottom will have fewer than 38, so one more win should see us safe.

I still won't breathe easily till it's an arithmetic certainly though.

[Pettywulliegrew-2]

6 hours ago, grumpy said:

My opinion, for what it's worth, is  whoever finishes bottom will have fewer than 35 points and second bottom will have fewer than 38, so one more win should see us safe.

I still won't breathe easily till it's an arithmetic certainly though.

Again big fan of the the maths.......or arithmetic.........quicker we get there the better.......will then make comments on who should/would like  to go down or come up 

[ropy]

On 3/13/2021 at 5:16 PM, ropy said:

I would like to see Hamilton get a draw (not much damage to us) and St Johnstone to win.  This would leave St Mirren in the bottom six and give us a chance to finish above them as we have done every season since 1989.

 Could be?

[ropy]

On 3/13/2021 at 5:16 PM, ropy said:

I would like to see Hamilton get a draw (not much damage to us) and St Johnstone to win.  This would leave St Mirren in the bottom six and give us a chance to finish above them as we have done every season since 1989.

A wee smile on my face despite the result

[ropy]

On 3/14/2021 at 1:08 PM, ropy said:

If Killie get 43, Accies can only get 41, and if that happens Ross County can only get 41.  So that is the target with a better goal difference. However every point that these teams drop reduces that target further.

If Hamilton win 5 they will get 42 points, Killie could then get 40 with a better goal difference and County could get 38, so the target is still 41.

The real target is St Mirren points + 1 (which is currently 41).

[Kmcalpin]

Very very occasionally I wish I was a betting man. Today was one of those rare days when I got all key 3 results (for us) right.

[fizoxy]

On 2/17/2021 at 4:23 PM, fizoxy said:

I've looked at the historic data and crunched the numbers, and I reckon that we will lose the ones I thought we would win, win the ones I thought we'd lose, and a draw.

Spot on. Is mystic Meg still alive? If so, she's out of a job. 

[Pettywulliegrew-2]

On 2/27/2021 at 10:36 PM, Pettywulliegrew-2 said:

Tremendous victory today.......but still a long way to go....next couple of games are massive for us 

Accies v St Johnstone on Wednesday night uses up one of the games in hand they have against us....home win drags St J right in to the mix hopefully a draw/away win

Ross County v Killie next Saturday really is a must win for both .....again a draw wouldn’t be the worst for us,

Accies away to sheep hopefully home win, and St J are at home to Hibs again away win would probably best for us

Again a home victory next week against Livy would be a massive victory in our quest for survival, without hoping on other results 

re post split fixtures.......we will have played 16 home and 17 away....think St Midden will pip Arabs for the top 6 as Arabs have Celtic/ Aberdeen 

Going by fixtures already played should be away to  Arabs , Accies,St John and at home to Killie and Ross County........are we going to have more away games or have someone 3 times at home ?

 

With St John nicking the last place....split games we should be away to Arabs and Accies and home to St Midden,Killie and Ross County

This would balance our season to 19 home and away games......I think......don’t know the situation with the other 5

[MJC]

Surely to God we’ve got to record a win against one or both of St.Mirren and Hamilton? The thought of going an entire season not beating either is an awful one. 

[Goggles & Flippers]

So 6 games culminated in 9th position, 4 points off Dundee Utd and 6 games that pretty much sum up the season. Highlights being the back to back games in Edinburgh and against Livvy. Other end of the spectrum the car crash vs St Johnstone, Accies and today. Inconsistency has been prevalent all season, I guess Alexander must be doing his dinger in. To be fair, after our last smash and grab at Rugby Park today was probably right but the manner of the defeat is hard to take.

On 2/17/2021 at 11:50 AM, Goggles & Flippers said:

So lets see who the tipsters are among us. 5 games to go, predict the scores and the points total.

St Johnstone (H)

St Mirren (A)

Hibs (A)

Livvy (H)

Killie (A)

1-0, 2-2, 3-2, 2-1, 2-0 = 7 points from 15 and 8th place after Killie. 

Points total correct. Swap Hibs and St Johnstone results round and rest was correct bar the scores. 9th and 4 points behind 8th too.

On 2/17/2021 at 12:20 PM, Spiderpig said:

The StJ, Killie and Livingston games I fancy us to win, but not by much, St Mirren are on some decent form just now so I reckon a draw is our best return for that one. As for Hibs they are chasing 3rd so anything we get there is a bonus but I see a defeat.

So for me 3 wins and a draw, 10 points from 15 is very achievable. 

3 too high, no cigar

On 2/17/2021 at 12:33 PM, C&A not the shop said:

Only once in the last 10 years has the team in 11th finished with more than 36 points. Anything over 7 points before the split is a success in my eyes, leaving us needing one win in the last 5 which if we can't manage we don't deserve to stay up.

So with that said:

St Johnstone W 2-1

St Mirren draw 1-1

Hibs Loss 2-0

Livi Win 1-0

Killie draw 0-0

8 points having us 8th at the split needing one win post split.

Another Hibs/St Johnstone switch and only one point out due to today.

On 2/17/2021 at 5:22 PM, GazzyB said:

I was full of hope before Saturday but given the spanking we received I think we'll draw with St Johnstone, lose to St Mirren and Hibs, draw with Livi and draw with Killie.

 

Three points in the next five games, needing us to find a couple of wins after the split to steer clear of the danger and then give the new manager some time to clear out some of the absolute dross that's in our squad.

 

Long, Hastie, Chapman, Lamie, McGinley, Seedorf, Polworth, all the loanees etc etc etc can all go.

3 points suggested, nowhere near, obviously not a betting man

On 2/17/2021 at 5:38 PM, Yassin said:

St Johnstone- 1-1 D

St Mirren- 2-0 W

Hibs - 2-0 L

Livingston- 1-1 D

Killie 1-0 L

5 points predicted, not one result correct till today

On 2/17/2021 at 7:13 PM, joewarkfanclub said:

St Johnstone 1-0 win

St Mirren 1-1 draw

Hibs 2-1 defeat

Livvy 0 - 0 draw

Killie 1-1 draw

6 points. Any advance on that with our injury list will be remarkable.

Remarkable then

On 2/17/2021 at 9:00 PM, couttsy said:

So hard to predict what Motherwell we’ll see from one week to the next or even one half to the next! 

With no confidence in any of these being right I’d go with the following:

St Johnstone 1-1 (1 point)

St Mirren 1-2 (3 points)

Hibs 2-0 (0 points)

Livvy 1-0 (3 points)

Killie 1-0 (0 points) 

Strangely enough I think we’re more likely to beat St Mirren and Livi than St Johnstone and Killie, which admittedly is a bit odd given league positions!

Points total correct, way in which we went about it inccorect.

On 2/18/2021 at 12:49 AM, Motherwell Daft said:

GA has definitely improved the Well since his arrival, however Saturdays absolute shitfest surely can’t happen again but I e been a Motherwell fan long enough to expect the worst but I’d expect a good few changes, GA alluded to it in his post match interview about choosing the wrong team, I think those that want away Campbell, Polworth, Long, SOD n Gallaghe (if fit) have to start performing to get their best move, I’m sure GA will tell them as much, I’d say we will get 10 pts out of 15 starting with a victory against Saints, draw against the Midden, close loss against Hibs, victory against Livvi who’s bubble has burst but their safe so no pressure,  n a victory against Killie, never mind top 6 just get as far away from the bottom 2 n be safe for GA to rejig the squad for next season. CMYW!!!!!!

Another Hibs/St. Johnstone switch but too much optimism about Killie took you 3 points too high

On 2/19/2021 at 5:22 PM, Stuwell2 said:

Any normal season lately, I’d have said 10 points is easily doable but this season has been anything but normal so I fear we could be short of points and in trouble come the split. 

Games ebbing away for bottom feeders so not mathematical but not doom and gloom.

On 2/20/2021 at 10:24 AM, milo said:

As I said in my original post, regardless of circumstances, we need 6 points minimum pre-split. 

We’ll probably need minimum 6 points post split also in order to finish no lower than 10th.

We got it

On 2/20/2021 at 3:48 PM, milo said:

I’d like to revise my prediction. I don’t even think we’ll get 0.

Then you fucked it

[Goggles & Flippers]

So page 2 and it's onto the "Forum PoPo"

On 2/20/2021 at 4:35 PM, Ya Bezzer! said:

Before today I would have had

St Johnstone D

St Mirren L

Hibernian L

Livingston W

Kilmarnock D

Pretty confident about the next two! 

Negativo, 2 shy

On 2/20/2021 at 5:11 PM, Andy_P said:

I'm now firmly on board with your original view that is indeed easily possible we could go six on the bounce without collecting a point.

Andy, Andy, Andy ......

On 2/20/2021 at 6:27 PM, Well-Made said:

Was reading this earlier today What do struggling clubs need to stay up. It reckons 32 points is the average points required to avoid finish 11th in recent seasons. Used to be 35.

If that's the case where do we see 4 points coming from?

At this time, I can't see us scoring 4 goals during the games that are left let alone get 4 points.

7 came from Hibs, Livvy and a draw in Paisley

[ropy]

On 3/20/2021 at 5:04 PM, ropy said:

If Hamilton win 5 they will get 42 points, Killie could then get 40 with a better goal difference and County could get 38, so the target is still 41.

The real target is St Mirren points + 1 (which is currently 41).

Hamilton can now get 39, meaning Kilmarnock could get 38 and County 36.  So no relegation and 1 point to avoid the play off?

[ropy]

15 minutes ago, ropy said:

Hamilton can now get 39, meaning Kilmarnock could get 38 and County 36.  So no relegation and 1 point to avoid the play off?

This might be too simplistic, I will need to get the pencil and paper out.

[weeyin]

7 minutes ago, ropy said:

This might be too simplistic, I will need to get the pencil and paper out.

Pretty close, I think.

If Accies get max points they end up on 39 and Killie could get 38 max. And Ross County could get 39 max, I think.

So Killie and Ross County could avoid the relegation spot on goal difference if we don't pick up another point.

If we get a point in our next game then I think that means we are mathematically, arithmetically and Liam Kellically safe. (Or maybe we need 2 points - sums are hard).

(I may also have got this completely wrong)