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Run in to the split - Predictions


Goggles & Flippers
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21 minutes ago, weeyin said:

Pretty close, I think.

If Accies get max points they end up on 39 and Killie could get 38 max. And Ross County could get 39 max, I think.

So Killie and Ross County could avoid the relegation spot on goal difference if we don't pick up another point.

If we get a point in our next game then I think that means we are mathematically, arithmetically and Liam Kellically safe. (Or maybe we need 2 points - sums are hard).

(I may also have got this completely wrong)

The Most points RC and Killie can get is 42 and 41 pts respectively, if that's the case Accies can only get 33, so a win next week and other results going for us would see us safe .

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15 minutes ago, Spiderpig said:

The Most points RC and Killie can get is 42 and 41 pts respectively, if that's the case Accies can only get 33, so a win next week and other results going for us would see us safe .

I think Accies can win 4 and get 39 points.

Killie can win 3 (losing to Accies) and get 38 points, but with better goal difference than us.

Ross County can win 3 (losing to Accies) and get 39 points.

That would be worst case for us if we pick up no more points.

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On 3/13/2021 at 5:16 PM, ropy said:

I would like to see Hamilton get a draw (not much damage to us) and St Johnstone to win.  This would leave St Mirren in the bottom six and give us a chance to finish above them as we have done every season since 1989.

I wondered if I was being a bit petty, but this is on.

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56 minutes ago, ML1 said:

I'll tell you whats petty, if offered id swap a win against Morton for one against Hamilton 

No chance, we have the ability to beat them both, Morton are rank, against Accies flood the midfield and stop them getting the ball wide and it’s a win or draw will do .

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2 hours ago, weeyin said:

I think Accies can win 4 and get 39 points.

Killie can win 3 (losing to Accies) and get 38 points, but with better goal difference than us.

Ross County can win 3 (losing to Accies) and get 39 points.

That would be worst case for us if we pick up no more points.

So the once upon a time worst case scenario is us finishing bottom and automatic relegation on goal difference, that would be bad, just as well  it's not going to happen. :)

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1 minute ago, Stevie73 said:

No chance, we have the ability to beat them both, Morton are rank, against Accies flood the midfield and stop them getting the ball wide and it’s a win or draw will do .

It would be the preferred choice however the recent evidence (including today) suggests otherwise

 

BTW i dont have access to any magical fairy willing to grant my wish

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10 minutes ago, Spiderpig said:

So the once upon a time worst case scenario is us finishing bottom and automatic relegation on goal difference, that would be bad, just as well  it's not going to happen. :)

Totally agree. There is no way we get zero points in the next 4 games and even less chance Accies, Killie and Ross County each win 3.

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It would be nice if we were mathimatically safe but there's no way we will finish in the bottom two now,hopefully we have learned our lesson from previous accies games and we go there and do them some real damage and have a right laugh at there expense after we have booked our place in the next round of the cup.

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It's not being Billy Big Baws to say 4 defeats against a team highly likely to finish bottom is unacceptable. Even one point would be a ridiculous return, for any team. It's only our incompetence that's kept them clinging on so long.

The players need to show the desire against Accies and, more importantly, Alexander needs to prove he's capable of coming up with a tactical plan to beat them. 

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1 hour ago, bobbybingo said:

It's not being Billy Big Baws to say 4 defeats against a team highly likely to finish bottom is unacceptable.

Finishing 7th while losing again to a relegated Accies and with Killie losing the play-off, would be very acceptable.

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5 hours ago, ropy said:

In terms of relegation, Hamilton 39, Kilmarnock 38 and Ross County 39.  So a point needed.

in terms of play off, Hamilton 33, Kilmarnock 41 and Ross County 42.  So still a bit to do.

The perfect scenario next week is us beating Accies to go to 41 pts with Killie and RC both not winning, then we are mathematically safe.

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1 hour ago, weeyin said:

Finishing 7th while losing again to a relegated Accies and with Killie losing the play-off, would be very acceptable.

Apologies if I'm misreading your comment, but are you saying losing to them would be very acceptable as long as we finish 7th and they get relegated?

I know Accies winning the 3 points might not save them when the season's over, but it would give them a decent chance and do nothing to help our chances of finishing 7th. If Utd won their game, it would basically finish them.

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1 hour ago, bobbybingo said:

Apologies if I'm misreading your comment, but are you saying losing to them would be very acceptable as long as we finish 7th and they get relegated?

100%

I don't care about one team when it comes to the league. I care about where we finish in the league. I don't care if we take all our points from Celtic & St Johnstone or Ross County & Aberdeen.

I'll look forward to beating Hearts next season much more than I worry about Accies. Accies season revolves around a relegation battle and beating us. 

And given the nature of this Covid season, staying in the top flight is all I really care about so we can get it over with and move on to a season with crowds. I don't really care how we achieve that.

As I've said elsewhere, I'm delighted we managed to play a season during lockdown, but I'll also be delighted when it's over.

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While the extra cash from finishing 7th/8th etc would undoubtedly be welcome, the kudos for having done so is pretty worthless. Now that we are, to all intents and purposes, safe from the threat of relegation, all the energies of the club must be focused on making next season a marked improvement on this one. It has been a horrible season in the most trying of circumstances for everyone. I will be glad to see the back of it and hope for better, all round, in the seasons to come.

 

I know some will think that I am tempting fate with the assumption that we will not go down, but if we do somehow manage to find ourselves in the Championship next season, it will not only be a remarkable feat from here, but we will be truly deserving of our fate.

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7 hours ago, weeyin said:

100%

I don't care about one team when it comes to the league. I care about where we finish in the league. I don't care if we take all our points from Celtic & St Johnstone or Ross County & Aberdeen.

I'll look forward to beating Hearts next season much more than I worry about Accies. Accies season revolves around a relegation battle and beating us. 

And given the nature of this Covid season, staying in the top flight is all I really care about so we can get it over with and move on to a season with crowds. I don't really care how we achieve that.

As I've said elsewhere, I'm delighted we managed to play a season during lockdown, but I'll also be delighted when it's over.

I'm not saying our season revolves around beating Accies, and honestly, I don't give a toss whether they go down or not. However, you want them gone, so the best way to help them along their merry way is to beat them.

I'm talking about us, this season, not next season or any other. They're our next game and if we want to have any realistic chance of finishing 7th, we cannot lose. Same thing will apply when it's Kilmarnock. 

The point about losing 4 times to one team would stand against anyone outwith the old firm. But it's especially true at this particular time against Accies, who, if they do beat us again, will have won more games against us than they have against every other team combined. That's a measure of what we're up against, and why we should be beating them - we've been shite, they've been shitier. 

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1 hour ago, texanwellfan said:

Why the negative responses to this if It is feasible? We cant finish any higher. 

It's feasible they win and still go down. The negative response regards it being ok for us to lose. To anyone. If someone can explain how us losing any game helps our chances of moving up the league, I'm all ears.

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That's the split of prize money for this season so finishing 7th instead of 9th nets us an extra 125k. Not to be sneezed at.

1st - 13.40% - £3,350,000 
2nd - 9.60% - £2,400,000 
3rd - 8.25% - £2,062,500 
4th - 7.25% - £1,812,500 
5th - 6.75% - £1,687,500 
6th - 6.25% - £1,562,500 
7th - 5.75% - £1,437,500 
8th - 5.50% - £1,375,000 
9th - 5.25% - £1,312,500 
10th -5.00% - £1,250,000 
11th - 4.75% - £1,187,500 
12th - 4.50% - £1,125,000 
            

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On 4/11/2021 at 11:36 AM, santheman said:

7th - 5.75% - £1,437,500 

This needs to be our goal, and whatever results are required to achieve it I hope it happens. So I want Dundee United and St.Mirren crash and burn and hope we win all our remaining games by a cricket score. As long as we do this, I don’t care who goes down. 

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So ideally I want...

Hamilton 0 - Motherwell 5

Kilmarnock 1 - Dundee United 0

Ross County 1 - St Mirren 0


Dundee United 0 - Ross County 1

Motherwell 3 - Kilmarnock 0

St Mirren 0 - Hamilton 0


Dundee United 0 - Motherwell 6

Kilmarnock 1 - St Mirren 0

Ross County 4 - Hamilton 0


Hamilton 0 - Kilmarnock 0

Motherwell 2 - Ross County 0

St Mirren 0 - Dundee United 0



Bottom six final  standings

Motherwell - 50pts

Dundee United  - 43pts

St Mirren - 42pts

Ross County - 39pts

Kilmarnock - 36pts

Hamilton - 29pts

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