2023/24 ins & outs discussion

[well_said]

10 minutes ago, bobbybingo said:

Fair enough. But can you name one Motherwell manager who hasn't signed at least one useless dud?

The best manager in my time Tommy McLean signed loads but he was savvy enough to offload them fairly quickly.He also signed lots of gems. The transfer window makes that almost impossible nowadays so it makes it vital that as much research as possible is done before signing players.

[wellfan]

14 minutes ago, bobbybingo said:

Fair enough. But can you name one Motherwell manager who hasn't signed at least one useless dud?

I completely accept that it's commonplace to sign players who turn out to be duds. What isn't, however, is for a manager to state that a player is a project and that they're hanging their hat on them when all evidence points to the fact that the player was already a known dud, unfortuantely. My point is that I think he’s effectively backed himself into a corner by doing so. And I also don't think it's good for the player for the manager to put that level of pressure/expectation on them given the scenario. 

[bobbybingo]

1 minute ago, well_said said:

The best manager in my time Tommy McLean signed loads but he was savvy enough to offload them fairly quickly.He also signed lots of gems. The transfer window makes that almost impossible nowadays so it makes it vital that as much research as possible is done before signing players.

Yeah, the transfer window has removed the chance for managers to correct their mistakes as they go through a season, which makes any mistake that much more costly and no doubt reduced their lifespan at a club. Like you say, it's vital research is done before signing players, but by its very nature, the window causes panic buys like Shaw when other plans fall through.

[bobbybingo]

4 minutes ago, wellfan said:

I completely accept that it's commonplace to sign players who turn out to be duds. What isn't, however, is for a manager to state that a player is a project and that they're hanging their hat on them when all evidence points to the fact that the player was already a known dud, unfortuantely. My point is that I think he’s effectively backed himself into a corner by doing so. And I also don't think it's good for the player for the manager to put that level of pressure/expectation on them given the scenario. 

He might've been better keeping that to himself, but he does like to talk. Kettlewell won't be here that long anyway. The average tenure of managers in Scotland is reducing all the time, and as someone else pointed out on here, our lot are burning out at an alarming rate, irrespective of results. If he's still here in January, I expect we'll be hearing more comments about a lack of funds making the job virtually impossible.

[wellfan]

3 minutes ago, bobbybingo said:

He might've been better keeping that to himself, but he does like to talk. Kettlewell won't be here that long anyway. The average tenure of managers in Scotland is reducing all the time, and as someone else pointed out on here, our lot are burning out at an alarming rate, irrespective of results. If he's still here in January, I expect we'll be hearing more comments about a lack of funds making the job virtually impossible.

Yep, it's a pretty depressing yet accurate assessment. 

[bobbybingo]

Just now, wellfan said:

Yep, it's a pretty depressing yet accurate assessment. 

I'm not big on the 'everything used to be better' stuff, but I don't know how any manager could possibly build a decent team at Fir Park (or most other places) these days. They can't go out and buy players now, so it's mostly either cast-offs or kids they're dealing with, and the windows mean they have just 2 goes a season to get it right, if they survive that long. Any promising youngster will be lucky to last 6 months before bigger fish take them and any senior player who has a good season will be looking to cash in on that, as will the board. 

It is depressing, but we're far from alone.

[texanwellfan]

8 minutes ago, bobbybingo said:

I'm not big on the 'everything used to be better' stuff, but I don't know how any manager could possibly build a decent team at Fir Park (or most other places) these days. They can't go out and buy players now, so it's mostly either cast-offs or kids they're dealing with, and the windows mean they have just 2 goes a season to get it right, if they survive that long. Any promising youngster will be lucky to last 6 months before bigger fish take them and any senior player who has a good season will be looking to cash in on that, as will the board. 

It is depressing, but we're far from alone.

Exactly. You know that if you have a good season the team will get decimated. It’s almost like starting anew every season which makes it even harder for managers. 

[wellfan]

6 minutes ago, bobbybingo said:

but I don't know how any manager could possibly build a decent team at Fir Park

Whilst I agree with most of what you've been saying, I think a start would be for a young manager to not sign known duds and say what he's said. As you've outlined, it's a difficult enough task already for him to get it right, but he's fucked it here. 

[wellfan]

4 minutes ago, texanwellfan said:

Exactly. You know that if you have a good season the team will get decimated. It’s almost like starting anew every season which makes it even harder for managers. 

We maybe wouldn't have to start anew every season if we had a bit more going on behind the scenes in terms of long-term planning, such as what David has been writing essays on here. 

[texanwellfan]

35 minutes ago, bobbybingo said:

Yeah, the transfer window has removed the chance for managers to correct their mistakes as they go through a season, which makes any mistake that much more costly and no doubt reduced their lifespan at a club. Like you say, it's vital research is done before signing players, but by its very nature, the window causes panic buys like Shaw when other plans fall through.

I’m a bit surprised/puzzled by the fact that transfer windows are a thing or are allowed to be enforced. Football is as much a business as it is a sport nowadays.  Most companies can hire and “fire” at will to best meet the needs of their business so why can’t football teams/businesses do that? Ohh BTW I hate transfer windows and all that pre contract shite. 

[texanwellfan]

Just now, wellfan said:

We maybe wouldn't have to start anew every season if we had a bit more going on behind the scenes in terms of long-term planning, such as what David has been writing essays on here. 

Easier said that done 

[Stuwell2]

A good discussion but I’ve a feeling that this board had a similar one a few years ago where I think it was discussed how the club was using this type of analytics to unearth gems from the lower / foreign leagues along with personal in game tracking to monitor/ improve our players. 
I seem to recall folk saying how using this data alongside watching / scouting would improve the quality of our signings.
The thing is that if every club is doing the same using the same data/ technology in the same way then we are now in a position of trying to sell ourselves as a club to these players who are getting similar or better offers from other clubs.
I’m sure we’ve had a few managers who have lamented our lack of facilities, wage constraints etc as reasons for not being able to entice players to join us which in my view is a major reason to why we are in the shite position we are in. 
Unfortunately I don’t see any way out of this situation. 

[bobbybingo]

35 minutes ago, wellfan said:

Whilst I agree with most of what you've been saying, I think a start would be for a young manager to not sign known duds and say what he's said. As you've outlined, it's a difficult enough task already for him to get it right, but he's fucked it here. 

I can't defend - or understand - him on Bair. Like you said earlier, the guy's a bloody trier, but as much as I believed he deserved a fair crack before being slaughtered, I was as mystified as everyone else when we signed him.

[bobbybingo]

48 minutes ago, wellfan said:

We maybe wouldn't have to start anew every season if we had a bit more going on behind the scenes in terms of long-term planning, such as what David has been writing essays on here. 

If David's plan worked we'd be successful, and in football, like any other business, that brings predators. The only way we could hang onto good players would be paying them significantly more money. And the only way we can get significantly more money, without outside investment, is by selling good players. 

I understand the idea is to buy cheap, sell dear and build up funds over time, enabling us to retain the core of the squad. But the whole plan surely relies on selling your best player/s on a regular basis, and that can have a huge effect on the rest of the team. Ambitious players will always be looking elsewhere.

[weeyin]

This all sounds a bit like the Dundee Utd model that was touted as an example to follow. Until they posted millions in debt and spent a few years in the Championship before getting promoted and relegated again.

Ourselves and most (all?) of our peers have struggled to find the right balance for years. It's obviously not an easy problem to solve as nobody has cracked it yet.

 

[wellfan]

29 minutes ago, bobbybingo said:

If David's plan worked we'd be successful, and in football, like any other business, that brings predators. The only way we could hang onto good players would be paying them significantly more money. And the only way we can get significantly more money, without outside investment, is by selling good players. 

I understand the idea is to buy cheap, sell dear and build up funds over time, enabling us to retain the core of the squad. But the whole plan surely relies on selling your best player/s on a regular basis, and that can have a huge effect on the rest of the team. Ambitious players will always be looking elsewhere.

I think there is a balance to be struck that requires a significant reliance on and investment in development, which also costs and has both risk and reward. Or we continue as is. 

[bobbybingo]

13 minutes ago, wellfan said:

I think there is a balance to be struck that requires a significant reliance on and investment in development, which also costs and has both risk and reward. Or we continue as is. 

As long as we continue to be 'fan owned', we'll continue as is.

[Yassin]

Are Brighton signing Theo Bair?

[David]

2 hours ago, bobbybingo said:

If David's plan worked we'd be successful, and in football, like any other business, that brings predators. The only way we could hang onto good players would be paying them significantly more money. And the only way we can get significantly more money, without outside investment, is by selling good players. 

Dealing with predators wanting to steal all our best players and personnel would be a great problem to have. It would certainly be preferable to what we have at the moment, which is no one wanting any of our players. 

3 hours ago, Stuwell2 said:

The thing is that if every club is doing the same using the same data/ technology in the same way then we are now in a position of trying to sell ourselves as a club to these players who are getting similar or better offers from other clubs.

You'd actually be surprised how many clubs, especially in Scotland, simply don't use these tactics though. There's a very strong "jobs for the boys" and "that's how we've always done things" mentality. 

We saw that with how the Ian Cathro experiment went at Hearts. He wasn't taken seriously because he wasn't a former player, and didn't have the "right connections" in the Scottish game. 

I acknowledge that the job as the actual coach may not have suited him and maybe even come too early, but the way he was undermined at the club, and generally treated like a joke by the Scottish media and the usual "run his socks off, honest professional" Sportscene crowd tells us all we need to know.

Someone who was the Head of Dundee United's youth academy at the age of 22, worked as an analytics expert and coach at clubs like Spurs, Wolves, Newcastle, and Valencia and was very highly regarded by the likes of Nuno Espirito Santo, and Rafa Benitez was deemed not good enough by the likes of Jon Daly and Kris Boyd, which means he had to go. The players didn't buy in and he hit a wall. 

Breaking that mentality in Scottish football isn't easy, and I don't think any club has done it successfully yet. 

2 hours ago, bobbybingo said:

I understand the idea is to buy cheap, sell dear and build up funds over time, enabling us to retain the core of the squad. But the whole plan surely relies on selling your best player/s on a regular basis, and that can have a huge effect on the rest of the team. Ambitious players will always be looking elsewhere.

For me, it's more about establishing a system and way of playing and using that as the building blocks for the entire project. Everything has to fit within that system. A manager who buys into that particular way of playing, and players who do the same. 

When a manager or player moves on, you replace them with someone who has similar attributes (or the potential to have similar attributes) and the whole process continues.

What this removes is situations like we see every time we appoint a new manager. For example, Kettlewell doesn't want to use wingers or "number 10" type players, so he comes in and rips up the squad to suit how he wants to play. If he doesn't get the results we hope over the next month and he gets sacked, what then? We appoint a manager who maybe does want to use wingers and those number 10 type players, but who isn't keen on the likes of Theo Bair or Jon Obika. The problem is, we got rid of the players he'd have liked, and have Theo Bair on a two-year deal, which isn't ideal and will require some financial outlay to fix.

So, come the summer he has to completely change everything all over again.

Ideally, we'd have a certain way of playing, and a list of up & coming managers from the lower leagues of Scotland, Ireland, Wales, and elsewhere in Europe who fit that bill. We can then move for any one of them if and when needed, safe in the knowledge that the very reason they're on that list to begin with is that they already have the attributes and employ the playing style we use, so the transition should be relatively seamless.

The clubs I mentioned utilise that system, and again, I'm not saying we can shop for coaches or players in the same pool as Brighton or even Bodø/Glimt, but we can do what they have done and put a system and plan in place, then recruit accordingly. Our market won't be as polished or talented as theirs.

Also, again, nothing is 100% guaranteed, but it's certainly more likely to work than just appointing whoever isn't tied down to a Sportscene appearance contract that season.

But yeah, the idea is to make sure that no player or manager is irreplaceable. If we sign someone who does really well and we sell them on for profit then great, and if a signing doesn't work out we can cut the guy loose and move forward with a player who can easily be plugged into the system. 

Utilising an analytics-driven system should see us statistically be successful enough in our recruitment to fulfil the "sell one player per season" target.

2 hours ago, bobbybingo said:

As long as we continue to be 'fan owned', we'll continue as is.

We will. We don't have to, but we will, I agree. Simply because along with someone who has made a decent wedge of cash in whatever industry and who chooses to own a football club tends to come a mentality for success and forward progression. 

We lack that at the moment I think. I believe the board and people working on it are doing their best, but it's not the same as having someone with real business acumen running the show.

[smiddy]

2 hours ago, David said:

Dealing with predators wanting to steal all our best players and personnel would be a great problem to have. It would certainly be preferable to what we have at the moment, which is no one wanting any of our players. 

You'd actually be surprised how many clubs, especially in Scotland, simply don't use these tactics though. There's a very strong "jobs for the boys" and "that's how we've always done things" mentality. 

We saw that with how the Ian Cathro experiment went at Hearts. He wasn't taken seriously because he wasn't a former player, and didn't have the "right connections" in the Scottish game. 

I acknowledge that the job as the actual coach may not have suited him and maybe even come too early, but the way he was undermined at the club, and generally treated like a joke by the Scottish media and the usual "run his socks off, honest professional" Sportscene crowd tells us all we need to know.

Someone who was the Head of Dundee United's youth academy at the age of 22, worked as an analytics expert and coach at clubs like Spurs, Wolves, Newcastle, and Valencia and was very highly regarded by the likes of Nuno Espirito Santo, and Rafa Benitez was deemed not good enough by the likes of Jon Daly and Kris Boyd, which means he had to go. The players didn't buy in and he hit a wall. 

Breaking that mentality in Scottish football isn't easy, and I don't think any club has done it successfully yet. 

For me, it's more about establishing a system and way of playing and using that as the building blocks for the entire project. Everything has to fit within that system. A manager who buys into that particular way of playing, and players who do the same. 

When a manager or player moves on, you replace them with someone who has similar attributes (or the potential to have similar attributes) and the whole process continues.

What this removes is situations like we see every time we appoint a new manager. For example, Kettlewell doesn't want to use wingers or "number 10" type players, so he comes in and rips up the squad to suit how he wants to play. If he doesn't get the results we hope over the next month and he gets sacked, what then? We appoint a manager who maybe does want to use wingers and those number 10 type players, but who isn't keen on the likes of Theo Bair or Jon Obika. The problem is, we got rid of the players he'd have liked, and have Theo Bair on a two-year deal, which isn't ideal and will require some financial outlay to fix.

So, come the summer he has to completely change everything all over again.

Ideally, we'd have a certain way of playing, and a list of up & coming managers from the lower leagues of Scotland, Ireland, Wales, and elsewhere in Europe who fit that bill. We can then move for any one of them if and when needed, safe in the knowledge that the very reason they're on that list to begin with is that they already have the attributes and employ the playing style we use, so the transition should be relatively seamless.

The clubs I mentioned utilise that system, and again, I'm not saying we can shop for coaches or players in the same pool as Brighton or even Bodø/Glimt, but we can do what they have done and put a system and plan in place, then recruit accordingly. Our market won't be as polished or talented as theirs.

Also, again, nothing is 100% guaranteed, but it's certainly more likely to work than just appointing whoever isn't tied down to a Sportscene appearance contract that season.

But yeah, the idea is to make sure that no player or manager is irreplaceable. If we sign someone who does really well and we sell them on for profit then great, and if a signing doesn't work out we can cut the guy loose and move forward with a player who can easily be plugged into the system. 

Utilising an analytics-driven system should see us statistically be successful enough in our recruitment to fulfil the "sell one player per season" target.

We will. We don't have to, but we will, I agree. Simply because along with someone who has made a decent wedge of cash in whatever industry and who chooses to own a football club tends to come a mentality for success and forward progression. 

We lack that at the moment I think. I believe the board and people working on it are doing their best, but it's not the same as having someone with real business acumen running the show.

by fuck   thats like reading a book at this time of nite

[Spiderpig]

4 hours ago, Yassin said:

Are Brighton signing Theo Bair?

Their army of analysts no doubt mulled it over for 10 seconds and then the computer said nah.

[David]

12 hours ago, smiddy said:

by fuck   thats like reading a book at this time of nite

I know, I apologise 😂

Analytics and stats are something I do for a job, so when you couple it with football I could talk (or type!) for hours.

[ropy]

19 hours ago, texanwellfan said:

I’m a bit surprised/puzzled by the fact that transfer windows are a thing or are allowed to be enforced. Football is as much a business as it is a sport nowadays.  Most companies can hire and “fire” at will to best meet the needs of their business so why can’t football teams/businesses do that? Ohh BTW I hate transfer windows and all that pre contract shite. 

These windows are actually registration windows.  Clubs could hire players at any time but can only register them to play in the next window (unless they weren’t registered with another club when signed).  
Shane Blaney arrived in December but we couldn’t play him till January.

 

[ropy]

19 hours ago, bobbybingo said:

I can't defend - or understand - him on Bair. Like you said earlier, the guy's a bloody trier, but as much as I believed he deserved a fair crack before being slaughtered, I was as mystified as everyone else when we signed him.

I think Bair is a red herring, it was made clear that he was here on washers, he isn’t taking up a wage that could go to someone else.  The idea was that he would be moulded in the background and see if he could be turned into a player.

Then everyone got injured.

He has proved to be more effective than a couple of the other strikers so he has stayed around the squad.

If we are criticising signings there are many other targets who were signed as first team players.

[wellsince75]

23 minutes ago, ropy said:

I think Bair is a red herring, it was made clear than he was here on washers, he isn’t taking up a wage that could go to someone else.  The idea was that he would be moulded in the background and see if he could be turned into a player.

Then everyone got injured.

He has proved to be more effective than a couple of the other strikers so he has stayed around the squad.

If we are criticising signings there are many other targets who were signed as first team players.

Fair to say all perm recruitment was poor and thus far complete waste of money. 

If SK hadn't pleaded poverty so often perhaps people would be less annoyed about Bair . Even if washers it's a waste of time, money and resources.