wellfan Posted February 28 Report Share Posted February 28 With 5 games to go to the split, what are our chances? Looking at previous tables, a team seems to require anywhere from 40-50 points to get into the top 6 by the end of matchday 33. And looking at the table right now, you'd imagine the magic number will be around 43-45 points. We're on 29 points now, with 15 up for grabs, so the top 6 is likely out of reach unless we win a lot and those around and above us lose a lot. Nonetheless, matchday 33 against Hibs could be a cracker. Rangers (A) Aberdeen (H) St Mirren (H) Dundee (A) Hibs (H) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grumpy Posted February 29 Report Share Posted February 29 Eh, 43-45 pts this season? That would mean both Hibs & Dundee winning 4 of their remaining games, or Aberdeen or St. Johnstone winning 5. I suspect 35 may be enough, but that is just a guess. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Faddyisgod Posted February 29 Report Share Posted February 29 53 minutes ago, grumpy said: Eh, 43-45 pts this season? That would mean both Hibs & Dundee winning 4 of their remaining games, or Aberdeen or St. Johnstone winning 5. I suspect 35 may be enough, but that is just a guess. I would imagine 1-2 teams might break the 35 point barrier looking at the fixtures though. I think every team plays 2-3 of the other teams around them so as long as they are not all draws then if one team goes on a run they could in effect win 2/3 “6 pointers” Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wellfan Posted February 29 Author Report Share Posted February 29 59 minutes ago, grumpy said: Eh, 43-45 pts this season? That would mean both Hibs & Dundee winning 4 of their remaining games, or Aberdeen or St. Johnstone winning 5. I suspect 35 may be enough, but that is just a guess. I hear what you're saying, but my calculation factored in Dundee (6th with 32 pts) and Hibs (7th with 31 pts) each having 6 games to go, over our 5 to go. Let's break even and call the magic number 40 pts. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Richie Posted February 29 Report Share Posted February 29 I had a look and both Dundee and Hibs are playing the teams around us I think. If they win, it keeps us safe from danger, if they lose it gives us an opportunity to sneak in the top 6. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joewarkfanclub Posted February 29 Report Share Posted February 29 Probably gonna need at least 3 wins and a draw out of those to have any real chance. The fact we have 3 home games and 2 of them are against direct rivals helps. As always its gonna come down to squad size and what injuries and suspensions we have. Keep out important players (Spittal, Vale, Bair, Miller, Devine, Gent) fit and it gives us a chance. Big ask, but not impossible. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FirParkCornerExile Posted February 29 Report Share Posted February 29 21 minutes ago, joewarkfanclub said: Probably gonna need at least 3 wins and a draw out of those to have any real chance. The fact we have 3 home games and 2 of them are against direct rivals helps. As always its gonna come down to squad size and what injuries and suspensions we have. Keep out important players (Spittal, Vale, Bair, Miller, Devine, Gent) fit and it gives us a chance. Big ask, but not impossible. It is quite incredible we still have a chance considering how utterly abysmal we've been most of the season Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wellfan Posted February 29 Author Report Share Posted February 29 Thanks to Pie & Bovril, I think my suggestion of 40+ points being the magic number is a reasonable assumption. P&B: “How many points needed for a top six place this term? Here’s the 6th placed team and their points total at the split going back the previous 9 seasons. 22-23 St.Mirren 44pts 21-22 Motherwell 40pts 20-21 St.Johnstone 40pts 19-20 n/a 18-19 Hearts 50pts 17-18 Hearts 46pts 16-17 Partick Thistle 41pts 15-16 Ross County 43pts 14-15 Dundee 44pts” https://x.com/pieandbov/status/1763127542486126811?s=46&t=wehikD-exiutCByWu64YEQ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
texanwellfan Posted February 29 Report Share Posted February 29 3 hours ago, joewarkfanclub said: Probably gonna need at least 3 wins and a draw out of those to have any real chance. The fact we have 3 home games and 2 of them are against direct rivals helps. As always its gonna come down to squad size and what injuries and suspensions we have. Keep out important players (Spittal, Vale, Bair, Miller, Devine, Gent) fit and it gives us a chance. Big ask, but not impossible. We have 2 week break after rangers game and then 2 week break between the first two home gameS. Then full week after the other games, so we have decent recovery time between games which should help as long as it’s not serious injuries Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wellgirl Posted February 29 Report Share Posted February 29 2 hours ago, FirParkCornerExile said: It is quite incredible we still have a chance considering how utterly abysmal we've been most of the season Not really given how tight the league is. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joewarkfanclub Posted February 29 Report Share Posted February 29 3 minutes ago, texanwellfan said: We have 2 week break after rangers game and then 2 week break between the first two home gameS. Then full week after the other games, so we have decent recovery time between games which should help as long as it’s not serious injuries Excellent! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
El Grew Posted February 29 Report Share Posted February 29 14 hours ago, wellfan said: With 5 games to go to the split, what are our chances? Looking at previous tables, a team seems to require anywhere from 40-50 points to get into the top 6 by the end of matchday 33. And looking at the table right now, you'd imagine the magic number will be around 43-45 points. We're on 29 points now, with 15 up for grabs, so the top 6 is likely out of reach unless we win a lot and those around and above us lose a lot. Nonetheless, matchday 33 against Hibs could be a cracker. Rangers (A) Aberdeen (H) St Mirren (H) Dundee (A) Hibs (H) Excluding Rangers, the rest are all winnable because the others are not exactly firing on all cylinders at present. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grumpy Posted February 29 Report Share Posted February 29 4 hours ago, wellfan said: I hear what you're saying, but my calculation factored in Dundee (6th with 32 pts) and Hibs (7th with 31 pts) each having 6 games to go, over our 5 to go. Let's break even and call the magic number 40 pts. Fair do's, I hadn't checked the remaining fixtures, it was just an instinctive reaction to your first guess. I think your second effort is probably pretty close to right. Interestingly, and at this stage arguably more importantly, over the same seasons the most points accrued by the 11th placed team is 36. Given that Ross County would need 13 points from 11 games to achieve that, that looks like my usual target of 38 points will be sufficient. Hopefully we will get more than that though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StAndrew7 Posted February 29 Report Share Posted February 29 9 minutes ago, grumpy said: Fair do's, I hadn't checked the remaining fixtures, it was just an instinctive reaction to your first guess. I think your second effort is probably pretty close to right. Interestingly, and at this stage arguably more importantly, over the same seasons the most points accrued by the 11th placed team is 36. Given that Ross County would need 13 points from 11 games to achieve that, that looks like my usual target of 38 points will be sufficient. Hopefully we will get more than that though. With our run in the way it's currently looking (i.e. after Saturday, a good amount of time for injured players to recover and other niggles to heal) we've got a realistic(ish) chance of getting maybe 7-9 points from those before the split if we continue to play the way we have been. Granted, we could equally get 0 or 12, this season has been mad not just for us in terms of up and down results. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wellsince75 Posted February 29 Report Share Posted February 29 I don’t see it . We’ve only won 6 games and our central defence is weak . i think we’re likely to get max of 5 points in remaining games pre split . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
texanwellfan Posted March 5 Report Share Posted March 5 So what are we hoping for or what would be the best results for us in the 2 games next Wednesday evening, the 13th ? Being positive (some may say dumb) that we can take care of our own business I think defeats for Hibs and Dundee would be best for our top 6 hopes. Failing that 2 draws would help us for top 6 and avoiding play off spot. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grumpy Posted March 6 Report Share Posted March 6 9 hours ago, texanwellfan said: So what are we hoping for or what would be the best results for us in the 2 games next Wednesday evening, the 13th ? Being positive (some may say dumb) that we can take care of our own business I think defeats for Hibs and Dundee would be best for our top 6 hopes. Failing that 2 draws would help us for top 6 and avoiding play off spot. We are on the cusp of safety and have a reasonable chance of the top six so wins for Ross County and Aberdeen would help us most. That said, if Ross County could overhaul Aberdeen that would be hilarious so my personal preference is a Hibs loss and a Dundee win or draw. On balance though, I'm going to wait till after the games are played and then spin the results as exactly what we wanted. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AllyMax Posted March 6 Report Share Posted March 6 20 hours ago, texanwellfan said: So what are we hoping for or what would be the best results for us in the 2 games next Wednesday evening, the 13th ? Being positive (some may say dumb) that we can take care of our own business I think defeats for Hibs and Dundee would be best for our top 6 hopes. Failing that 2 draws would help us for top 6 and avoiding play off spot. Tough call tonight for what we want. What are we more worried about ? Top Six or Mathematical Safety ?? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weeyin Posted March 6 Report Share Posted March 6 18 minutes ago, AllyMax said: Tough call tonight for what we want. What are we more worried about ? Top Six or Mathematical Safety ?? Top six for me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
texanwellfan Posted March 6 Report Share Posted March 6 38 minutes ago, AllyMax said: Tough call tonight for what we want. What are we more worried about ? Top Six or Mathematical Safety ?? Games are on Wednesday 13th. So Aberdeen play cup game Saturday, make up game Wednesday and then us Saturday. We have been caught like that from time to time so hoping it takes a lot out of them maybe some injuries or suspension. I’ll take whatever advantage we can get. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmcalpin Posted March 7 Report Share Posted March 7 Not worth a thread on its own but we're playing Ayr United today in a bounce game to keep us ticking over. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wellfan Posted March 7 Author Report Share Posted March 7 2 hours ago, Kmcalpin said: Not worth a thread on its own but we're playing Ayr United today in a bounce game to keep us ticking over. Let's hope it's an honest game with no cheating. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
texanwellfan Posted March 8 Report Share Posted March 8 Any info on bounce game against Ayr Utd? Hopefully no injuries. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
numpty Posted March 8 Report Share Posted March 8 1 hour ago, texanwellfan said: Any info on bounce game against Ayr Utd? Hopefully no injuries. We won 2-1 according to thread on P&B. No injuries reported so far… 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weeyin Posted March 8 Report Share Posted March 8 1 hour ago, numpty said: We won 2-1 according to thread on P&B. No injuries reported so far… We don't usually injure our players in training until the day before a match. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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