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Kilmarnock v Motherwell 08/01/2025


SteelmaninOZ
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Another 3-4-3 (in attack) and 5-4-1 (in defence) masterclass - or whatever it was today - where we have 30-40% possession and win again and keep another clean sheet? 

Probably not. McInness is much more streetwise than Thelin. He’ll have Killie better prepared to counter our tactics and press.

That said, it’ll be interesting to see if Kettlewell reverts to type or not for this match. 

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54 minutes ago, Cameron_Mcd said:

People over estimate the affect of the astro. Managers and player love using it as an excuse after they've shat the bed.

In reality Killie's home form is absolutely nothing spectacular 

I dont think they do. Kilmarnock have only lost 15 of their last 69 matches at Rugby Park (22%). Of their last 75 away games they've lost 40 (54%). Their pitch does give them an advantage, its a shite surface that they are used to. You also compare how often Kilmarnock have beaten both Rangers and Celtic at Rugby Park on the artificial surface  and compare the same record every other club has against the OF at home and Kilmarnock are out front. 5 times versus Rangers since 2019 and 4 times versus Celtic since 2019 .

 

 

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29 minutes ago, FirParkCornerExile said:

I dont think they do. Kilmarnock have only lost 15 of their last 69 matches at Rugby Park (22%). Of their last 75 away games they've lost 40 (54%). Their pitch does give them an advantage, its a shite surface that they are used to. You also compare how often Kilmarnock have beaten both Rangers and Celtic at Rugby Park on the artificial surface  and compare the same record every other club has against the OF at home and Kilmarnock are out front. 5 times versus Rangers since 2019 and 4 times versus Celtic since 2019 .

Is that not pretty normal for a home/away loss ratio. 

The record Vs the OF, think it's simply that McIness and Clarke knew how to set up Vs them. I don't think it has much to do with the pitch, for example Accies never really had a decent record Vs either of them at NDP as far as I can remember.

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Another derby for me.

Would be lovely to get 3 points and try and gain ground on Aberdeen and United. But not losing and stopping Killie from making any inroads into the gap between us would be an acceptable return.

Not sure any of the injured players will be risked on the plastic, so could be a few selection issues again.

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3 hours ago, Cameron_Mcd said:

Is that not pretty normal for a home/away loss ratio. 

The record Vs the OF, think it's simply that McIness and Clarke knew how to set up Vs them. I don't think it has much to do with the pitch, for example Accies never really had a decent record Vs either of them at NDP as far as I can remember.

Not when you look at other clubs, Kilmarnock are disproportionate , its not huge but their pitch definitely gives them an edge. Big difference between Accies and Kilmarnock. Accies will rarely have the standard of player that Kilmarnock have.

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32 minutes ago, FirParkCornerExile said:

Not when you look at other clubs, Kilmarnock are disproportionate , its not huge but their pitch definitely gives them an edge. Big difference between Accies and Kilmarnock. Accies will rarely have the standard of player that Kilmarnock have.

https://x.com/pieandbov/status/1873706979123773924?t=kfHI3MQRYYVZ5_IFAugyTQ&s=19

This is what I'm going off of. From there Killie's point distribution is one of the closest to 50/50 and I suspect today's result will only make it worse.

As for the second part, is that not my whole point? Killie have had 2 sides filled with good players but more importantly very good defenders as well as 2 very experienced managers. That's why they've gotten those results, not because of their pitch.

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6 hours ago, Cameron_Mcd said:

People over estimate the affect of the astro. Managers and player love using it as an excuse after they've shat the bed.

In reality Killie's home form is absolutely nothing spectacular 

We have an OK record at Killie and Livi but that doesn't mean the games won't make your eyes bleed.

It's not about excuses, it's about the astro making games unwatchable even when you win. 

I'd struggle to think of 3 great games I have ever seen on plastic.

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This decade in the League it's 4 wins, 4 draws and 4 losses between Motherwell and Kilmarnock.

Only once has a team scored more than twice (Kilmarnock put 4 past us in March 21) and there has only been 5 goals in the last 3 matches.

Everything points to this being as tight as you can get.

These matches usually go to the home team though.  We've not won at Rugby Park since 2021 though where our record is 1-1-3, while at Fir Park we have a decent record of 3-3-1

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Not got a lot of confidence in us getting a result here, kind of agree with those saying the surface favours Killie although I’m sure we will have been training on astro more lately due to the weather so players might be less affected by it. 
My main thought is that similar to the last game at FP, McInnes will set them up defensively and we will just lump long high ball’s at them as our passing is poor to say the least. 
Also I’d like to see our distribution being quicker, in a forward direction and for players to look to the left rather than constantly turning to the right hand side all the time. The amount of times Wilson was standing in acres of space yesterday only to be constantly ignored was ridiculous. 

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18 minutes ago, wellfan said:

Killie were due to replace their plastic shite with grass for the 2025/26 season, but that’s been delayed until the 2026/27 season, meaning another 18 months of shite at Rugby Park. 

I heard that as well. But didnt the league vote to ban plastic from the top flight from the end of this season?

There were some Falkirk fans losing their shit over it at the time.

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We are certainly set up to let other teams have the ball and play them on the break.

McInnes did deal with that effectively at Fir Park by not playing into that tactic which made it really difficult for us.

But will he be able to get away with the same thing at home when they have just lost to Ross County?

Be interesting to see their fans reaction if he does.

Hoping Paton is fit again and we dont need to see Davor and Halliday together again!

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