Post-Split

[wellgirl]

38 minutes ago, The African said:

One factor which may have been missed when looking at the arithmetic possibilities here is that, should we somehow contrive to lose all five of our post split fixtures, then every other team in the lower half gets an automatic three point boost to their position. As such, our current situation is not as secure as we would hope. It would probably also be the case that, with goal difference being remarkably tight between all the teams involved, five defeats will not help us if we are level on points with anyone else at the end of the season.

 

The solution is still in our hands thankfully. Pick up points wherever we can, as early as we can, and we will be safe for another year.

But the teams below us still need to play one another and will drop points. Even if all the other clubs below us get an automatic 3 point boost they still need to play one another - and they'll drop points 

We are in 8th and we have an advantage over teams below us

Surely we need to get behind the team right now - they really need it. We were 9th last season yes. We've been here before more than once 

We really are not in the worst position given our current points tally compared to the teams below us 

[The African]

1 hour ago, wellgirl said:

But the teams below us still need to play one another and will drop points. Even if all the other clubs below us get an automatic 3 point boost they still need to play one another - and they'll drop points 

We are in 8th and we have an advantage over teams below us

Surely we need to get behind the team right now - they really need it. We were 9th last season yes. We've been here before more than once 

We really are not in the worst position given our current points tally compared to the teams below us 

If we lose all our remaining games, then we are stuck on 39 points. With then three points from victories over us, Kilmarnock are on 38, Ross County are on 38, Dundee on 37 and St Johnstone are on 32. They would therefore need a further 2, 2, 3 and 8 points respectively, without getting into goal difference, to get above us on the table. Given each has four games remaining it does not seem beyond the realms of possibility that at least the first three might achieve this feat.

On a more positive note, it is obviously better that we have this lead and the premise is based on the idea that we are going to get nothing from the remaining games. 

My main point was suggesting that the idea that we could lose all our games and still be safe was flawed and somewhat optimistic.

[weeyin]

As bad as some people might think we are right now, our recent form in our last 6 games is only matched by St Johnstone. The other 4 teams have been playing worse than us.

I certainly prefer our position (and form) in the table to the position where you have a 6 point gap to make up just to avoid the playoff spot.

 

[joewarkfanclub]

If we lost our remaining 5 games I still think St Johnstone would struggle to overcome our total. They would still need to win another 2 and draw one of their remaining 4. That seems unlikely, but not impossible.

It would bring the play off spot into sharp focus though.

Thankfully, I dont think we will lose all 5 games.

Even a couple of shitfest draws should see us safe (I think!).

It will be tight though, so Im not expecting to enjoy the next few weeks.

[thewelllfan]

On all the League reconstruction talk in here personally I want to see it expanded to 14 teams with a 6/8 split and basically adopt the Greek Model.

26 games pre split play all teams H&A

Split into top 6 and bottom 8 all play H &A again. 36 games FOR T6 40 for Bottom 8

T3 European places guaranteed + Cup Winner/4th

Then add a European Play off between 5/6/7/8 for final European Place. If Cup winner is outisde T8 4/5/6/7 contest P/O

Bottom 2 Relegated

Championship Winner and play off between 2nd and 5th come up

That keeps your 4 Old Firms for TV deal.

Gives teams in bottom half something to play and gets rid of the get out of Jail free card for 2nd bottom.

To me that would be the most interesting and would hopefully improve youth development as their would be less fear of relegation.

Model is also not perfect so open to ideas on how to improve it further.

 

[dennyc]

14 hours ago, The African said:

If we lose all our remaining games, then we are stuck on 39 points. With then three points from victories over us, Kilmarnock are on 38, Ross County are on 38, Dundee on 37 and St Johnstone are on 32. They would therefore need a further 2, 2, 3 and 8 points respectively, without getting into goal difference, to get above us on the table. Given each has four games remaining it does not seem beyond the realms of possibility that at least the first three might achieve this feat.

 

Another factor to build in points wise, is that these teams all play each other so in every game points will be gained by one or both teams. Eg Killie play Saints so one at least would get to 39.....from that game alone

If we lose all 5 games (IF) then we are in big trouble.

[star sail]

21 minutes ago, dennyc said:

Another factor to build in points wise, is that these teams all play each other so in every game points will be gained by one or both teams. Eg Killie play Saints so one at least would get to 39.....from that game alone

If we lose all 5 games (IF) then we are in big trouble.

If we lose all 5 games we would deserve to be relegated as the poorest team in the bottom half. 

Current Form and form throughout the season does not suggest that will happen.

I can understand the angst that this is a possibility but as a potential outcome it is a massive outlier. Possible yes, likely no. 

If this were to happen, we would be looking for a new manager in the summer. This squad of players has it's faults but given the dross we will be up against over the next few weeks 5 loses without reply would be unacceptable.

It is all just chat however. It won't happen. We are staying up this year. 

[twistandshout1983]

I know things don't look great at present but I will be surprised if we dont win any of the last 5 games.

We have won at Ibrox, Tannadice, Easter Road and St Mirren who all made the top 6, so think we could win at least 1 of the away games .  Maybe not on current form as we will have to improve but there is a chance

[David]

2 hours ago, dennyc said:

If we lose all 5 games (IF) then we are in big trouble.

Of course, I might be entirely off with this – I’m no mathematician – but here’s how I see it:

We’d need to only reach a maximum of 40 points to be in trouble, which would mean one draw and four defeats.

At the same time, Dundee would have to pick up at least seven points from their remaining five matches.

And then, either Ross County or Kilmarnock would need to reach 41 points or more to push us down to 11th place.

Possible? Yes. Likely? I wouldn't put my life savings on it.

[MJC]

1 hour ago, twistandshout1983 said:

I know things don't look great at present but I will be surprised if we dont win any of the last 5 games.

We have won at Ibrox, Tannadice, Easter Road and St Mirren who all made the top 6, so think we could win at least 1 of the away games .  Maybe not on current form as we will have to improve but there is a chance

The problem is that losing, or just not winning becomes a hard habit to shift.
 

And since we won at Ibrox we haven’t looked like winning any game we’ve played and apart from Slattery’s goal at Pittodrie which seems a distant memory now, we haven’t looked like even scoring. 
 

I don’t see us losing all five remaining games but at the same time I don’t see us winning any of them either so we are depending on other results to keep us away from 11th.

[robsterwood]

Bookies got us 12 to 1 to finish bottom 2. They don't often get it wrong. 

[wellgirl]

Id take that with a pinch of salt tbh. Other bookies have us at 150/1

[robsterwood]

35 minutes ago, wellgirl said:

Id take that with a pinch of salt tbh. Other bookies have us at 150/1

I would prob take any bet that we stay up. Think it's 95 percent certain. Too many results and combinations must be aligned to seal our demise. 

[wellgirl]

1 hour ago, robsterwood said:

I would prob take any bet that we stay up. Think it's 95 percent certain. Too many results and combinations must be aligned to seal our demise. 

Thankfully 

[Kmcalpin]

The SPFL's the 18/20 split reasoning is a black box and seemingly justified subjectively and randomly. Reasons given in the past include:

Finishing in the wrong half of the table; least impact on the relegation fight; and now to rectify a previous imbalance.

We were disadvantaged in 2009/10, but benefitted in 2017/18 and so in overall balance. The reason given this time was to rectify our "advantage" in 2017/18.

It seems we were chosen this time because we would have least impact on the relegation fight (what about Hearts?), but also because it would result in the least number of fixture reversals. No guarantee then that we won't be fingered again.

What a load of codswallop from the SPFL.

[dennyc]

11 hours ago, Kmcalpin said:

The SPFL's the 18/20 split reasoning is a black box and seemingly justified subjectively and randomly. Reasons given in the past include:

Finishing in the wrong half of the table; least impact on the relegation fight; and now to rectify a previous imbalance.

We were disadvantaged in 2009/10, but benefitted in 2017/18 and so in overall balance. The reason given this time was to rectify our "advantage" in 2017/18.

It seems we were chosen this time because we would have least impact on the relegation fight (what about Hearts?), but also because it would result in the least number of fixture reversals. No guarantee then that we won't be fingered again.

What a load of codswallop from the SPFL.

And I assume they totally ignore the loss of income/reduction in season ticket games from the lost home fixture. For me switching the Hearts game was a no brainer but no doubt it was a question of big club/support v wee club/support. I'm guessing neither Celtic or Rangers have ever lost out. Even if Hearts had made top six at the expense of St Mirren I think we would have still been shafted. Then again, our Club voted in this set up.

Will not make any difference but I hope MFC have registered a complaint about the whole situation.

[Spiderpig]

9 minutes ago, dennyc said:

I'm guessing neither Celtic or Rangers have ever lost out.

 

That is the root of the problem right there, everything the SFA / SPFL ever do is to pander to the ugly sisters to make sure they get what they want ie a 19/19 split every season, the most TV cash etc etc. As a result every other club has to take what's left, and nothing will ever change unless the 11/1 voting rules in the Premiership are altered. 

[wellfan]

27 minutes ago, dennyc said:

Will not make any difference but I hope MFC have registered a complaint about the whole situation.

They’d be as well registering the complaint with Upper Crust because the SPFL and SFA could not give two shits about members such as our club. 

[stv]

44 minutes ago, wellfan said:

They’d be as well registering the complaint with Upper Crust because the SPFL and SFA could not give two shits about members such as our club. 

That wouldn't work either I got a shitty tuna crunch baguette wi salad missing two weeks ago , wrote a letter still no reply . Typical they both ignore paying customers . 😫